’I think this is a relatively small update, unlikely to change my mind about the overall positive benefit of free mosquito net distribution’
Have you actually run a back of the envelope calculation on this? I’m kind of worried we are all massively biased on this topic because it would be so embarrassing for EA if mosquito net distribution turned out to be net negative.
“The study’s authors estimate that the three interventions averted 663 million cases of malaria in the 15 year period. Insecticide-treated bed nets were by far the most important intervention of the three, preventing 68% of the averted cases.”
“Fisheries contribute to Africa’s economy. Currently, fisheries and aquaculture directly contribute $24 billion to the African economy, representing 1.3% of the total African GDP in 2011. The sector provides employment to over 12 million people (58% in the fishing and 42% in the processing sector). While fishing jobs are almost entirely taken by men, 59% of the processing work is done by women. Employment multiplier effects are remarkable: for example, for every fisherman job, 1.04 additional onshore-job is created in Mauritania, while this ratio reaches 3.15 in Guinea, illustrating the potential for further job creation through value chain development.”
To narrow down the uncertainty further, you probably want to
look at what percentage of fisheries specifically are in places that are likely to have MNF
remove “aquaculture” (fish farms) from the relevant stats.
I haven’t thought much about what the marginal effects of nets on marginal fisheries is; I think someone who explores this for an hour or so can draw some reasonable-looking curves.
(I originally thought fisheries will be a small enough fraction of the African economy that the upper bound of assuming 100% of bednets are used for MNF still isn’t enough to be net negative; I no longer think that is certain).
’I think this is a relatively small update, unlikely to change my mind about the overall positive benefit of free mosquito net distribution’
Have you actually run a back of the envelope calculation on this? I’m kind of worried we are all massively biased on this topic because it would be so embarrassing for EA if mosquito net distribution turned out to be net negative.
I haven’t—even after this much research I don’t feel epistemically confident enough to do so. I welcome anyone else to do it!
Some useful tips/data points for people to narrow down uncertainty:
https://ourworldindata.org/malaria-net-results
“The study’s authors estimate that the three interventions averted 663 million cases of malaria in the 15 year period. Insecticide-treated bed nets were by far the most important intervention of the three, preventing 68% of the averted cases.”
World Bank on African fisheries
“Fisheries contribute to Africa’s economy. Currently, fisheries and aquaculture directly contribute $24 billion to the African economy, representing 1.3% of the total African GDP in 2011. The sector provides employment to over 12 million people (58% in the fishing and 42% in the processing sector). While fishing jobs are almost entirely taken by men, 59% of the processing work is done by women. Employment multiplier effects are remarkable: for example, for every fisherman job, 1.04 additional onshore-job is created in Mauritania, while this ratio reaches 3.15 in Guinea, illustrating the potential for further job creation through value chain development.”
To narrow down the uncertainty further, you probably want to
look at what percentage of fisheries specifically are in places that are likely to have MNF
remove “aquaculture” (fish farms) from the relevant stats.
I haven’t thought much about what the marginal effects of nets on marginal fisheries is; I think someone who explores this for an hour or so can draw some reasonable-looking curves.
(I originally thought fisheries will be a small enough fraction of the African economy that the upper bound of assuming 100% of bednets are used for MNF still isn’t enough to be net negative; I no longer think that is certain).
Definitely outside of my capabilities, but somebody should!
Some extra context on scope: https://www.unicef.org/supply/media/13951/file/LLIN-Market-and-Supply-Update-October-2022.pdf
UNICEF directs about 30 million nets per year over the last few years. Not sure if counts partners and whether AMF counts as a partner.
By compare AMF has donated 250 million nets over the last 18 years, averaging 14 million per year.
Global net production is about 480 million per year, unsure what percent are charitably distributed vs purchased.
Presumably use of purchased nets is scarcely tracked at all.
Price per net is about $2 to distributors. Unsure what they are on the market, guessing around $3.