Executive summary: Manifold Markets is an online prediction platform that uses virtual currency to produce calibrated probabilities about future events through the aggregated bets of its users.
Key points:
Manifold Markets allows users to create prediction markets on future events and bet using virtual currency called “Mana”.
Empirical analysis shows Manifold’s probabilities are well-calibrated, meaning a 90% probability translates to a 90% frequency of occurring.
Manifold provides probabilities on newsworthy events like technology, politics, and more.
The author aims to surpass another user in referral sign-ups to Manifold.
Interacting with Manifold can improve one’s own calibration in making probabilistic predictions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Thumbs up to this summary. My only nitpick is that I wouldn’t call Mana “virtual currency” since it could be confused with cryptocurrency, while it’s mere internet points.
Executive summary: Manifold Markets is an online prediction platform that uses virtual currency to produce calibrated probabilities about future events through the aggregated bets of its users.
Key points:
Manifold Markets allows users to create prediction markets on future events and bet using virtual currency called “Mana”.
Empirical analysis shows Manifold’s probabilities are well-calibrated, meaning a 90% probability translates to a 90% frequency of occurring.
Manifold provides probabilities on newsworthy events like technology, politics, and more.
The author aims to surpass another user in referral sign-ups to Manifold.
Interacting with Manifold can improve one’s own calibration in making probabilistic predictions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.
Thumbs up to this summary. My only nitpick is that I wouldn’t call Mana “virtual currency” since it could be confused with cryptocurrency, while it’s mere internet points.