Impact Markets link: https://app.impactmarkets.io/profile/clfljvejd0012oppubuwne2k2
Writer
Karma: 1,184
Our new video about goal misgeneralization, plus an apology
The King and the Golem—The Animation
That Alien Message—The Animation
The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better: The Animation.
Rational Animations’ intro to mechanistic interpretability
I think his answer is here:
Some hope for some sort of international treaty on safety. This seems fanciful to me. The world where both the CCP and USG are AGI-pilled enough to take safety risk seriously is also the world in which both realize that international economic and military predominance is at stake, that being months behind on AGI could mean being permanently left behind. If the race is tight, any arms control equilibrium, at least in the early phase around superintelligence, seems extremely unstable. In short, ”breakout” is too easy: the incentive (and the fear that others will act on this incentive) to race ahead with an intelligence explosion, to reach superintelligence and the decisive advantage, too great.
At the very least, the odds we get something good-enough here seem slim. (How have those climate treaties gone? That seems like a dramatically easier problem compared to this.)
S-Risks: Fates Worse Than Extinction
I think we still see really good engagement with the videos themselves. The average view duration for the AI video is currently 58.7% of the video, and 25% of viewers watched the whole video
This average percentage relates to organic traffic only, right? The paid traffic APV must look much lower, something like 5%?
How people stopped dying from diarrhea so much (& other life-saving decisions)
No, for now, we aren’t committing to any specific type of niche!
Rational Animations offers animation production and writing services!
“What if we could redesign society from scratch? The promise of charter cities.” [Rational Animations video]
The True Story of How GPT-2 Became Maximally Lewd
Thumbs up to this summary. My only nitpick is that I wouldn’t call Mana “virtual currency” since it could be confused with cryptocurrency, while it’s mere internet points.
Predicting the future with the power of the Internet (and pissing off Rob Miles)
Specification Gaming: How AI Can Turn Your Wishes Against You [RA Video]
How to Upload a Mind (In Three Not-So-Easy Steps)
There is a single winner so far, and it will be announced with the corresponding video release. The contest is still open, though!
Edit: another person claimed a bonus prize, too.
For me, perhaps the biggest takeaway from Aschenbrenner’s manifesto is that even if we solve alignment, we still have an incredibly thorny coordination problem between the US and China, in which each is massively incentivized to race ahead and develop military power using superintelligence, putting them both and the rest of the world at immense risk. And I wonder if, after seeing this in advance, we can sit down and solve this coordination problem in ways that lead to a better outcome with a higher chance than the “race ahead” strategy and don’t risk encountering a short period of incredibly volatile geopolitical instability in which both nations develop and possibly use never-seen-before weapons of mass destruction.
Edit: although I can see how attempts at intervening in any way and raising the salience of the issue risk making the situation worse.