In Holden Karnofskyâs just-published Cold Takes blog post This Canât Go On, he cites how at 2% annual economic growth the economy would grow by a factor of 3*10^70 in just 8,200 years. Since there are likely fewer than that many atoms in our galaxy, this would mean that âweâd need to be sustaining multiple economies as big as todayâs entire world economy per atom.â Holden says:
Is it imaginable that we could develop the technology to support multiple equivalents of todayâs entire civilization, per atom available? Sureâbut this would require a radical degree of transformation of our lives and societies, far beyond how much change weâve seen over the course of human history to date. And I wouldnât exactly bet that this is how things are going to go over the next several thousand years.
It seems much more likely that we will ârun outâ of new scientific insights, technological innovations, and resources, and the regime of âgetting richer by a few percent a yearâ will come to an end. After all, this regime is only a couple hundred years old.
(Edited 8â3 to include the written post quote now that itâs published, rather than my transcription of the audio)
It is published now (here, but wasnât at the time of my above comment. The audio was published before the written post (by about a day-ish). I sent Holden the feedback to let him know.
In Holden Karnofskyâs just-published Cold Takes blog post This Canât Go On, he cites how at 2% annual economic growth the economy would grow by a factor of 3*10^70 in just 8,200 years. Since there are likely fewer than that many atoms in our galaxy, this would mean that âweâd need to be sustaining multiple economies as big as todayâs entire world economy per atom.â Holden says:
(Edited 8â3 to include the written post quote now that itâs published, rather than my transcription of the audio)
Is⌠this post published yet? I canât find it anywhere.
It is published now (here, but wasnât at the time of my above comment. The audio was published before the written post (by about a day-ish). I sent Holden the feedback to let him know.