Overall, I place at least 10% probability on advanced AI driving explosive growth [30% GWP growth each year] this century.
While I’m not aware of anyone claiming that if such 30% annual GWP growth were to occur that the economy would continue to grow at that rate for many years, it occurred to me that at that rate of growth the economy would grow by a factor of 10^11 each century.
At that rate of growth the solar system’s economy would reach its maximum size (imposed by the amount of matter in the solar system and how efficiently that matter can be used) very quickly, probably within about a century or two.
This leads me to wonder, what exactly is the maximum size economy the solar system can sustain? Are there existing published estimates on this question?
[Question] How large can the solar system’s economy get?
In Open Philanthropy’s Report on Whether AI Could Drive Explosive Economic Growth, Tom Davidson writes:
While I’m not aware of anyone claiming that if such 30% annual GWP growth were to occur that the economy would continue to grow at that rate for many years, it occurred to me that at that rate of growth the economy would grow by a factor of 10^11 each century.
At that rate of growth the solar system’s economy would reach its maximum size (imposed by the amount of matter in the solar system and how efficiently that matter can be used) very quickly, probably within about a century or two.
This leads me to wonder, what exactly is the maximum size economy the solar system can sustain? Are there existing published estimates on this question?