Added and responded to your comments on the page (the hypothesis comments), and then I asked Codex to update to these https://uj-ai-wealth-philanthropy-steelman.netlify.app/ … I haven’t inspected the latest version in detail yet, though.
Some highlights of particular interest to @MichaelDickens , Tobias, and readers/modelers
More citations, tooltips, direct links, and quoted support for key factual claims, greater reasoning transparency, auditing.
“Updated the model/text in response to his critiques: especially lockup timing, over-optimistic deployment speed, founder pledge ambiguity, OpenAI Foundation treatment, grantmaker capacity, collapse risk, and the need for distributions rather than just point estimates.”
Clarified “the conversion terms are sequential gates”, Made “realization,” “follow-through,” “allocation,” and “deployment by end-2026” more distinct, reduced risk it seems like double-adjusting
Reframe original ‘calculator’
Added a new tab for correlated uncertainty, added shared latent factors such as liquidity plumbing, donor intent, grantmaking capacity, local optimism, and deployment pressure.
Added and responded to your comments on the page (the hypothesis comments), and then I asked Codex to update to these https://uj-ai-wealth-philanthropy-steelman.netlify.app/ … I haven’t inspected the latest version in detail yet, though.
Some highlights of particular interest to @MichaelDickens , Tobias, and readers/modelers
More citations, tooltips, direct links, and quoted support for key factual claims, greater reasoning transparency, auditing.
“Updated the model/text in response to his critiques: especially lockup timing, over-optimistic deployment speed, founder pledge ambiguity, OpenAI Foundation treatment, grantmaker capacity, collapse risk, and the need for distributions rather than just point estimates.”
Clarified “the conversion terms are sequential gates”, Made “realization,” “follow-through,” “allocation,” and “deployment by end-2026” more distinct, reduced risk it seems like double-adjusting
Reframe original ‘calculator’
Added a new tab for correlated uncertainty, added shared latent factors such as liquidity plumbing, donor intent, grantmaking capacity, local optimism, and deployment pressure.
Clearer planning simulator
Equations/derivations page
Automated evidence monitor added
Added a “Submit your estimate” form.
https://uj-ai-wealth-philanthropy-steelman.netlify.app/
NB it may be getting too complicated to oversee for now, we may want to simplify it