I downvoted and disagreevoted, though I waited until you replied to reassess.
I did so because I see absolutely no gain from doing this, I think the opportunity cost means it’s net negative, and I oppose the hype around prediction markets—it seems to me like the movement is obsessed with them but practically they haven’t led to any good impact.
Edit: regarding ‘noticing we are surprised’ - one would think this result is surprising, otherwise there’d be voices against the high amount of funding for EA conferences?
I downvoted and disagreevoted, though I waited until you replied to reassess.
I did so because I see absolutely no gain from doing this, I think the opportunity cost means it’s net negative, and I oppose the hype around prediction markets—it seems to me like the movement is obsessed with them but practically they haven’t led to any good impact.
Edit: regarding ‘noticing we are surprised’ - one would think this result is surprising, otherwise there’d be voices against the high amount of funding for EA conferences?
I think the methodology here was too weak for the result to be too surprising, even conditioned on EA conferences working
Do you maybe want to voice your opinion of the methodology in a top level comment? I’m not qualified to judge myself and I think it’d be informative.
I have seen some moderate pushback on the amount of money spent on EAGs (though not directed at EAGxes)