The problem I have with the scenarios is that they are end-state scenarios without considering who does anything or how negotiations proceed. But unlike in idealized though experiments, in social and geopolitical systems, the process by which the goal is pursued, not the stated goal state, actually determines what the end state looks like.
(totally agree thinking about end-states is insufficient, but I think it’s a necessary first step and this kind of thinking reveals big cruxes and some real disagreements)
The problem I have with the scenarios is that they are end-state scenarios without considering who does anything or how negotiations proceed. But unlike in idealized though experiments, in social and geopolitical systems, the process by which the goal is pursued, not the stated goal state, actually determines what the end state looks like.
(totally agree thinking about end-states is insufficient, but I think it’s a necessary first step and this kind of thinking reveals big cruxes and some real disagreements)