(speaking for myself) I had an extended discussion with Scott (and to a lesser extent Rachel and Austin) about the original proposed market mechanism, which iiuc hasn’t been changed much since.
I’m not particularly worried about final funders losing out here, if anything I remember being paternalistically worried that the impact “investors” don’t know what they’re getting into, in that they appeared to be taking on more risks without getting a risk premium.
But if the investors, project founders, Manifold, etc, are happy to come to this arrangement with their eyes wide open, I’m not going to be too paternalistic about their system.
I do broadly agree with something like “done is better than perfect,” and that it seemed better to get this particular impact market out the gate than to continue to debate the specific mechanism design.
That said, theoretically unsound mechanisms imo have much lower value-of-information, since if they fail it’d be rather unclear whether impact markets overall don’t work vs this specific setup won’t.
(speaking for myself)
I had an extended discussion with Scott (and to a lesser extent Rachel and Austin) about the original proposed market mechanism, which iiuc hasn’t been changed much since.
I’m not particularly worried about final funders losing out here, if anything I remember being paternalistically worried that the impact “investors” don’t know what they’re getting into, in that they appeared to be taking on more risks without getting a risk premium.
But if the investors, project founders, Manifold, etc, are happy to come to this arrangement with their eyes wide open, I’m not going to be too paternalistic about their system.
I do broadly agree with something like “done is better than perfect,” and that it seemed better to get this particular impact market out the gate than to continue to debate the specific mechanism design.
That said, theoretically unsound mechanisms imo have much lower value-of-information, since if they fail it’d be rather unclear whether impact markets overall don’t work vs this specific setup won’t.
My current impression is that there is no mechanism and funders will do whatever they feel like and some investors will feel misled...
I now agree funders won’t really lose out, at least.