You’ve identified a really weak plank in the argument against AI solving factory farming. I agree that capacity-building is not a significant bottleneck, for a lot of the reasons you present.
I think the key issue is whether there will be social and legal barriers that prevent people from switching to farmed animal alternatives. These barriers might prevent the kinds of capacity build-up that would make alternative proteins economically competitive.
I think I might be more pessimistic than you about whether people want to switch to more humane alternatives (and would do so if they were wealthier). That’s probably the case for welfare-enhanced meat (as we see with many affluent customers today). I’m less confident about willingness to switch to lab-grown meat or other alternatives.
I’m quite curious about a scenario in which: massive capacity for producing alt proteins happens without cultural buy-in, causing alt proteins to be far cheaper than animal proteins. The economic incentives to switch could cause quite swift cultural changes. But I’m quite uncertain when trying to predict culture changes.
Hi Michael!
You’ve identified a really weak plank in the argument against AI solving factory farming. I agree that capacity-building is not a significant bottleneck, for a lot of the reasons you present.
I think the key issue is whether there will be social and legal barriers that prevent people from switching to farmed animal alternatives. These barriers might prevent the kinds of capacity build-up that would make alternative proteins economically competitive.
I think I might be more pessimistic than you about whether people want to switch to more humane alternatives (and would do so if they were wealthier). That’s probably the case for welfare-enhanced meat (as we see with many affluent customers today). I’m less confident about willingness to switch to lab-grown meat or other alternatives.
I’m quite curious about a scenario in which: massive capacity for producing alt proteins happens without cultural buy-in, causing alt proteins to be far cheaper than animal proteins. The economic incentives to switch could cause quite swift cultural changes. But I’m quite uncertain when trying to predict culture changes.