Also: while those with high quality epistemics usually agree on similar things is a distortion making the argument personal, about people, in reality yes, good reasoning often converges to similar conclusions
This. Aumann’s Agreement Theorem tells us that Bayesian that have common priors and trust each other to be honest cannot disagree.
The in practice version of this is that a group agreeing on similar views around certain subjects isn’t automatically irrational, unless we have outside evidence or one of the conditions is wrong.
Aumann’s agreement theorem is pretty vacuous because the common prior assumption never holds in important situations, e.g. everyone has different priors on AI risk.
This. Aumann’s Agreement Theorem tells us that Bayesian that have common priors and trust each other to be honest cannot disagree.
The in practice version of this is that a group agreeing on similar views around certain subjects isn’t automatically irrational, unless we have outside evidence or one of the conditions is wrong.
Aumann’s agreement theorem is pretty vacuous because the common prior assumption never holds in important situations, e.g. everyone has different priors on AI risk.