I think most neartermist organizations basically work under the assumption of business as usual as you describe it, at least for the next decade. So, most global health and poverty and animal welfare orgs.
Some other options that seem promising under business as usual scenarios (not necessarily to the exclusion of more unusual scenarios) that come to mind are patient philanthropy/​altruism, capacity/​movement building and institutional reform.
I think most neartermist organizations basically work under the assumption of business as usual as you describe it, at least for the next decade. So, most global health and poverty and animal welfare orgs.
Some other options that seem promising under business as usual scenarios (not necessarily to the exclusion of more unusual scenarios) that come to mind are patient philanthropy/​altruism, capacity/​movement building and institutional reform.