I am thoroughly shocked by these numbers and can’t understand why they’ve not been more widely publicized- or perhaps everyone is aware of them apart from me! I’ve been an effective altruist for 4 years, but never realized that knowledgeable people had such seriously high estimates of the risk of total extinction over the next 100 years. If people have estimates like these (or as Gregory Lewis says within factors of 10000 of them)- then surely the logical conclusion is that all other causes pale in comparison and that all EAs should focus their efforts purely on x-risk. And yet judging by EA funds donations- the community sees it very differently.
There is more to the issue, you need to look at the chance that extinction can be avoided by a given donation. Otherwise it would be just like saying that we should donate against poverty because there are a billion poor people.