Update: I changed the probability distribution in the post slightly in line with your criticism. The new distribution is almost exactly the same, except that I think it portrays a more realistic picture of short timelines. The p(TAI < 2030) is now 5% [eta: now 18%], rather than 2%.
Update: I changed the probability distribution in the post slightly in line with your criticism. The new distribution is almost exactly the same, except that I think it portrays a more realistic picture of short timelines. The p(TAI < 2030) is now 5% [eta: now 18%], rather than 2%.