Sorry, that was very poor wording. I meant that 2023 FLOP is probably about equal to 2 2022 FLOP, due to continued algorithmic progress. I’ll reword the comment you replied to.
Incidentally, as its central estimate for algorithmic improvement, the takeoff speeds model uses AI and Efficiency’s ~1.7x per year, and then halves it to ~1.3x per year (because todays’ algorithmic progress might not generalize to TAI). If you’re at 2x per year, then you should maybe increase the “returns to software” from 1.25 to ~3.5, which would cut the model’s timelines by something like 3 years. (More on longer timelines, less on shorter timelines.)
I don’t understand this. Why would there be a 2x speedup in algorithmic progress?
Sorry, that was very poor wording. I meant that 2023 FLOP is probably about equal to 2 2022 FLOP, due to continued algorithmic progress. I’ll reword the comment you replied to.
Nice, gotcha.
Incidentally, as its central estimate for algorithmic improvement, the takeoff speeds model uses AI and Efficiency’s ~1.7x per year, and then halves it to ~1.3x per year (because todays’ algorithmic progress might not generalize to TAI). If you’re at 2x per year, then you should maybe increase the “returns to software” from 1.25 to ~3.5, which would cut the model’s timelines by something like 3 years. (More on longer timelines, less on shorter timelines.)