Overall, I think Epoch should be taking more of a security mindset approach with regard to x-risk in it’s projections. i.e. not just being conservative in a classic academic prestige-seeking sense, but looking at ways that uncontrollable AGI could be built soon (or at least sooner) that break past trends and safe assumptions, and raising the alarm where appropriate.
I can only speak for myself here, not Epoch, but I don’t believe in using the security mindset when making predictions. I also dispute the suggestion that I’m trying to be conservative in a classic academic prestige-seeking sense. My predictions are simply based on what I think is actually true, to the best of my abilities.
Fair enough. I do say “projection” rather than prediction though—meaning that I think a range of possible futures should be looked at (keeping in mind a goal of working to minimise existential risk), rather than just trying to predict what’s most likely to happen or “on the mainline”.
Overall, I think Epoch should be taking more of a security mindset approach with regard to x-risk in it’s projections. i.e. not just being conservative in a classic academic prestige-seeking sense, but looking at ways that uncontrollable AGI could be built soon (or at least sooner) that break past trends and safe assumptions, and raising the alarm where appropriate.
I can only speak for myself here, not Epoch, but I don’t believe in using the security mindset when making predictions. I also dispute the suggestion that I’m trying to be conservative in a classic academic prestige-seeking sense. My predictions are simply based on what I think is actually true, to the best of my abilities.
Fair enough. I do say “projection” rather than prediction though—meaning that I think a range of possible futures should be looked at (keeping in mind a goal of working to minimise existential risk), rather than just trying to predict what’s most likely to happen or “on the mainline”.