I thought it would be useful to append my personal TAI timelines conditional on no coordinated delays, no substantial regulation, no great power wars or other large exogenous catastrophes, no global economic depression, and that my basic beliefs about reality are more-or-less correct (e.g. I’m not living in a simulation or experiencing a psychotic break).
As you can see, this results in substantially different timelines. I think these results might be more useful for gauging how close I think we are to developing the technologies for radically transforming our world. I’ve added these plots in a footnote.
I thought it would be useful to append my personal TAI timelines conditional on no coordinated delays, no substantial regulation, no great power wars or other large exogenous catastrophes, no global economic depression, and that my basic beliefs about reality are more-or-less correct (e.g. I’m not living in a simulation or experiencing a psychotic break).
As you can see, this results in substantially different timelines. I think these results might be more useful for gauging how close I think we are to developing the technologies for radically transforming our world. I’ve added these plots in a footnote.