Cool, I thought that was most of the explanation for the difference in the median. But I thought it shouldn’t be enough to explain the 14x difference between 28% and 2% by 2030
That’s reasonable. I think I probably should have put more like 3-6% credence before 2030. I should note that it’s a bit difficult to tune the Metaculus distributions to produce exactly what you want, and the distribution shouldn’t be seen as an exact representation of my beliefs.
That’s reasonable. I think I probably should have put more like 3-6% credence before 2030. I should note that it’s a bit difficult to tune the Metaculus distributions to produce exactly what you want, and the distribution shouldn’t be seen as an exact representation of my beliefs.