I think it’s okay to use “I’d bet” as shorthand for “I’d bet this claim is 50.1% or more likely to be true, and I’d put the alternate claims, summed together, at 49.9% likely or less, collectively”
That’s how I mean it when I say “I’d bet” and tbh I think that is the colloquial usage too (though most normies wouldn’t be able to put it into such precise language when asked what they mean, I think that’s basically what they mean)
I think it’s okay to use “I’d bet” as shorthand for “I’d bet this claim is 50.1% or more likely to be true, and I’d put the alternate claims, summed together, at 49.9% likely or less, collectively”
That’s how I mean it when I say “I’d bet” and tbh I think that is the colloquial usage too (though most normies wouldn’t be able to put it into such precise language when asked what they mean, I think that’s basically what they mean)
I think it’s ok if you would actually end up betting.