The people making the bet aren’t, even pretty indirectly, in a position to influence the management of the tragedy or the dedication of resources to it. It doesn’t actually matter all that much, in other words, if one of them is over- or under-confident about some aspect of the tragedy.
Do you think the bet would be less objectionable if Justin was able to increase the number of deaths?
But if two people were (for example) betting on a prediction platform that’s been set up by public health officials to inform prioritization decisions, then this would make the bet better. The reason is that, in this context, it would obviously matter if their expressed credences are well-callibrated and honestly meant. To the extent that the act of making the bet helps temporarily put some observers “on their toes” when publicly expressing credences, the most likely people to be put “on their toes” (other users of the platform) are also people whose expressed credences have an impact. So there would be an especially solid pro-social case for making the bet.
I suppose this bullet point is mostly just trying to get at the idea that a bet is better if it can clearly be helpful. (I should have said “positively influence” instead of just “influence.”) If a bet creates actionable incentives to kill people, on the other hand, that’s not a good thing.
Do you think the bet would be less objectionable if Justin was able to increase the number of deaths?
No, I think that would be far worse.
But if two people were (for example) betting on a prediction platform that’s been set up by public health officials to inform prioritization decisions, then this would make the bet better. The reason is that, in this context, it would obviously matter if their expressed credences are well-callibrated and honestly meant. To the extent that the act of making the bet helps temporarily put some observers “on their toes” when publicly expressing credences, the most likely people to be put “on their toes” (other users of the platform) are also people whose expressed credences have an impact. So there would be an especially solid pro-social case for making the bet.
I suppose this bullet point is mostly just trying to get at the idea that a bet is better if it can clearly be helpful. (I should have said “positively influence” instead of just “influence.”) If a bet creates actionable incentives to kill people, on the other hand, that’s not a good thing.