Agreed, thank you Justin. (I also hope I win the bet, and not for the money—while it is good to consider the possibility of the most severe plausible outcomes rigorously and soberly, it would be terrible if it came about in reality). Bet resolves 28 January 2021. (though if it’s within an order of magnitude of the win criterion, and there is uncertainty re: fatalities, I’m happy to reserve final decision for 2 further years until rigorous analysis done—e.g. see swine flu epidemiology studies which updated fatalities upwards significantly several years after the outbreak).
To anyone else reading. I’m happy to provide up to a £250 GBP stake against up to £50 of yours, if you want to take the same side as Justin.
Strong kudos for betting. Your estimates seem quite off to me but I really admire you putting them to the test. I hope, for the sake of the world, that you are wrong.
Hmm… I will take you up on a bet at those odds and with those resolution criteria. Let’s make it 50 GBP of mine vs 250 GBP of yours. Agreed?
I hope you win the bet!
(note: I generally think it is good for the group epistemic process for people to take bets on their beliefs but am not entirely certain about that.)
Agreed, thank you Justin. (I also hope I win the bet, and not for the money—while it is good to consider the possibility of the most severe plausible outcomes rigorously and soberly, it would be terrible if it came about in reality). Bet resolves 28 January 2021. (though if it’s within an order of magnitude of the win criterion, and there is uncertainty re: fatalities, I’m happy to reserve final decision for 2 further years until rigorous analysis done—e.g. see swine flu epidemiology studies which updated fatalities upwards significantly several years after the outbreak).
To anyone else reading. I’m happy to provide up to a £250 GBP stake against up to £50 of yours, if you want to take the same side as Justin.
The bet is on.
Strong kudos for betting. Your estimates seem quite off to me but I really admire you putting them to the test. I hope, for the sake of the world, that you are wrong.
Re: whose mortality estimates, I suggest we use metaculus’s list here (WHO has highest ranking) as standard (with the caveat above).
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-before-2021/