I suggest the question you’ve linked has an artificially low upper bound
The question has an upper bound of 100 million deaths, not cases. I don’t think that is “artificially low”.
Maybe you are confusing Hurford’s link with this old question, which does have an artificially low upper bound and deals with cases instead of deaths.
All metaculus questions are about cases, not deaths.
Most of them are, but the one Hurford linked to is explicitly about the number of deaths: “How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) before 2021?”.
I am not sure where you found the claim you cite
If you look at the bottom of the page, it says that the community predicts a ~3% chance of greater than 100 million deaths. Previously, it said 2% for the same number of deaths.
Just to be absolutely clear about what I am referring to, here is a screenshot of the relevant part of the UI.
The question has an upper bound of 100 million deaths, not cases. I don’t think that is “artificially low”.
Maybe you are confusing Hurford’s link with this old question, which does have an artificially low upper bound and deals with cases instead of deaths.
Most of them are, but the one Hurford linked to is explicitly about the number of deaths: “How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) before 2021?”.
If you look at the bottom of the page, it says that the community predicts a ~3% chance of greater than 100 million deaths. Previously, it said 2% for the same number of deaths.
Just to be absolutely clear about what I am referring to, here is a screenshot of the relevant part of the UI.
You are entirely correct. My bad.