Any thoughts on why the estimates here are so much higher than metaculus? Here they seem to range between 10 − 100 million, whilst the current metaculus median is 100k.
Maybe because of anchoring effect: everyone on metaculus sees the median prediction before he makes the bet and doesn’t want to be much different from the group.
Any thoughts on why the estimates here are so much higher than metaculus? Here they seem to range between 10 − 100 million, whilst the current metaculus median is 100k.
Maybe I’ve missed something.
Maybe because of anchoring effect: everyone on metaculus sees the median prediction before he makes the bet and doesn’t want to be much different from the group.