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Evan_Gaensbauer Jan 14, 2019, 10:46 PM
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The Global Catastrophic Risks Institute (GCRI) has a webpage up with their research on this topic under the heading ‘cross-risk evaluation and prioritization.’ Alexey Turchin also made this map of ‘double scenarios’ for global catastrophic risk, which maps out the pairwise possibilities for how two global catastrophic risks could interact.
- avturchin Jan 15, 2019, 9:30 PM
  5 points
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  Parent
  In fact, I tried also to explore this idea—which I find crucial—in my Russian book “Structure of global catastrophe”, but my attempts to translate into English didn’t work well, so I now slowly convert its content in the articles.
  I would add an important link on the A Singular Chain of Events by Tonn and MacGregor, as well as work of Seth Baum on double catastrophes. The idea of “Peak everything” about simultaneous depletion of all natural resources also belong here, but should be combined with idea of Singularity as idea of acceleration of everything, which combined create very unstable situation.
Yannick_Muehlhaeuser Jan 16, 2019, 1:37 PM
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I think people who think about existential risk should devote some of their energy to thinking about risks that are not themselves existential but might be existential if combined with other risks. For example, climate change is not an existential risk, but it plausibly plays a role in many combination existential risks, such as by increasing international tensions or by rendering much of the globe difficult to inhabit. Similarly, many global catastrophic risks may in fact be existential if combined with other global catastrophic risks, such as a nuclear war combined with a pandemic.
I think those would be called ‘Context Risk’. I haven’t read that word in many places, but i first heard of it in Phil Torres’ book about x-risks.
John_Maxwell Jan 16, 2019, 8:00 AM
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Has there been any research into ways to address Allee effects? Seems like that could address a range of combination existential risks simultaneously.
Yoav_Ravid Jan 15, 2019, 6:22 PM
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80,000 hours made an article calculating the chance any existential risk will happen (combined their probabilities), not sure if this fully applies to what you meant, but it’s something.