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Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

Core TagLast edit: 21 Oct 2020 8:46 UTC by Aaron Gertler

Ex­is­ten­tial Risk is a very broad tag, and can ap­ply to any post which dis­cusses risks to hu­man civ­i­liza­tion or the hu­man species.

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA15 Apr 2020 12:43 UTC
77 points
28 comments5 min readEA link

X-risks to all life v. to humans

RobertHarling3 Jun 2020 15:40 UTC
55 points
33 comments4 min readEA link

Venn di­a­grams of ex­is­ten­tial, global, and suffer­ing catastrophes

MichaelA15 Jul 2020 12:28 UTC
57 points
2 comments7 min readEA link

The Im­por­tance of Un­known Ex­is­ten­tial Risks

MichaelDickens23 Jul 2020 19:09 UTC
65 points
11 comments12 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the prob­a­bil­ity of ex­is­ten­tial catas­tro­phe: A re­ply to Beard et al.

MichaelA10 Aug 2020 5:56 UTC
19 points
3 comments3 min readEA link
(gcrinstitute.org)

What is ex­is­ten­tial se­cu­rity?

MichaelA1 Sep 2020 9:40 UTC
24 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

Re­duc­ing long-term risks from malev­olent actors

David_Althaus29 Apr 2020 8:55 UTC
236 points
64 comments37 min readEA link

2019 AI Align­ment Liter­a­ture Re­view and Char­ity Comparison

Larks19 Dec 2019 2:58 UTC
145 points
28 comments62 min readEA link

Causal di­a­grams of the paths to ex­is­ten­tial catastrophe

MichaelA1 Mar 2020 14:08 UTC
34 points
9 comments13 min readEA link

Clar­ify­ing ex­is­ten­tial risks and ex­is­ten­tial catastrophes

MichaelA24 Apr 2020 13:27 UTC
22 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Ex­is­ten­tial risks are not just about humanity

MichaelA28 Apr 2020 0:09 UTC
15 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA7 Apr 2020 2:19 UTC
50 points
31 comments9 min readEA link

[Question] How Much Does New Re­search In­form Us About Ex­is­ten­tial Cli­mate Risk?

zdgroff22 Jul 2020 23:47 UTC
59 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

In­for­ma­tion se­cu­rity ca­reers for GCR reduction

ClaireZabel20 Jun 2019 23:56 UTC
154 points
34 comments8 min readEA link

Eight high-level un­cer­tain­ties about global catas­trophic and ex­is­ten­tial risk

SiebeRozendal28 Nov 2019 14:47 UTC
80 points
9 comments5 min readEA link

Ex­is­ten­tial Risk and Eco­nomic Growth

leopold3 Sep 2019 13:23 UTC
121 points
29 comments1 min readEA link

Book Re­view: The Precipice

Aaron Gertler9 Apr 2020 21:21 UTC
39 points
0 comments17 min readEA link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Im­prov­ing dis­aster shelters to in­crease the chances of re­cov­ery from a global catastrophe

Nick_Beckstead19 Feb 2014 22:17 UTC
11 points
5 commentsEA link

The timing of labour aimed at re­duc­ing ex­is­ten­tial risk

Toby_Ord24 Jul 2014 4:08 UTC
14 points
6 commentsEA link

Cru­cial ques­tions for longtermists

MichaelA29 Jul 2020 9:39 UTC
73 points
16 comments19 min readEA link

“Dis­ap­point­ing Fu­tures” Might Be As Im­por­tant As Ex­is­ten­tial Risks

MichaelDickens3 Sep 2020 1:15 UTC
58 points
7 comments30 min readEA link

AI Gover­nance: Op­por­tu­nity and The­ory of Impact

Allan Dafoe17 Sep 2020 6:30 UTC
132 points
13 comments13 min readEA link

‘Ex­is­ten­tial Risk and Growth’ Deep Dive #1 - Sum­mary of the Paper

Alex HT21 Jun 2020 9:22 UTC
54 points
7 comments9 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: April 2019 grant recommendations

Habryka23 Apr 2019 7:00 UTC
143 points
240 comments46 min readEA link

Which World Gets Saved

trammell9 Nov 2018 18:08 UTC
93 points
25 commentsEA link

Will the Treaty on the Pro­hi­bi­tion of Nu­clear Weapons af­fect nu­clear de­pro­lifer­a­tion through le­gal chan­nels?

Luisa_Rodriguez6 Dec 2019 10:38 UTC
98 points
5 comments32 min readEA link

Which nu­clear wars should worry us most?

Luisa_Rodriguez16 Jun 2019 23:31 UTC
89 points
12 comments6 min readEA link

How bad would nu­clear win­ter caused by a US-Rus­sia nu­clear ex­change be?

Luisa_Rodriguez20 Jun 2019 1:48 UTC
88 points
11 comments43 min readEA link

How many peo­ple would be kil­led as a di­rect re­sult of a US-Rus­sia nu­clear ex­change?

Luisa_Rodriguez30 Jun 2019 3:00 UTC
86 points
17 comments52 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: Au­gust 2019 grant recommendations

Habryka3 Oct 2019 18:46 UTC
79 points
70 comments64 min readEA link

Would US and Rus­sian nu­clear forces sur­vive a first strike?

Luisa_Rodriguez18 Jun 2019 0:28 UTC
74 points
4 comments24 min readEA link

Bioinfohazards

Fin17 Sep 2019 2:41 UTC
73 points
9 comments18 min readEA link

Key points from The Dead Hand, David E. Hoffman

Kit9 Aug 2019 13:59 UTC
66 points
5 comments7 min readEA link

Tech­ni­cal AGI safety re­search out­side AI

richard_ngo18 Oct 2019 15:02 UTC
81 points
5 comments3 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund AMA

HelenToner19 Dec 2018 4:10 UTC
39 points
30 commentsEA link

AMA: Toby Ord, au­thor of “The Precipice” and co-founder of the EA movement

Toby_Ord17 Mar 2020 2:39 UTC
66 points
82 comments1 min readEA link

Crit­i­cal Re­view of ‘The Precipice’: A Re­assess­ment of the Risks of AI and Pandemics

Fods1211 May 2020 11:11 UTC
77 points
32 comments26 min readEA link

[Question] Pro­jects tack­ling nu­clear risk?

Sanjay29 May 2020 22:41 UTC
27 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Is some kind of min­i­mally-in­va­sive mass surveillance re­quired for catas­trophic risk pre­ven­tion?

casebash1 Jul 2020 23:32 UTC
23 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

‘The Precipice’ Book Review

Matt g27 Jul 2020 22:10 UTC
19 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

A New X-Risk Fac­tor: Brain-Com­puter Interfaces

Jack10 Aug 2020 10:24 UTC
54 points
11 comments41 min readEA link

An­i­mal Rights, The Sin­gu­lar­ity, and Astro­nom­i­cal Suffering

deluks91720 Aug 2020 20:23 UTC
37 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Thread: Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

amandango22 Sep 2020 20:51 UTC
22 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

The end of the Bronze Age as an ex­am­ple of a sud­den col­lapse of civilization

FJehn28 Oct 2020 12:55 UTC
25 points
6 comments7 min readEA link

Does cli­mate change de­serve more at­ten­tion within EA?

Louis_Dixon17 Apr 2019 6:50 UTC
106 points
65 comments15 min readEA link

Con­cern­ing the Re­cent 2019-Novel Coron­avirus Outbreak

Matthew_Barnett27 Jan 2020 5:47 UTC
102 points
139 comments3 min readEA link

Age-Weighted Voting

William_MacAskill12 Jul 2019 15:21 UTC
61 points
39 comments6 min readEA link

Launch­ing the EAF Fund

stefan.torges28 Nov 2018 17:13 UTC
59 points
12 comments4 min readEA link

Cor­po­rate Global Catas­trophic Risks (C-GCRs)

HaukeHillebrandt30 Jun 2019 16:53 UTC
55 points
17 comments10 min readEA link

How x-risk pro­jects are differ­ent from startups

Jan_Kulveit5 Apr 2019 7:35 UTC
50 points
9 comments1 min readEA link

Why mak­ing as­ter­oid deflec­tion tech might be bad

MichaelDello20 May 2020 23:01 UTC
21 points
10 comments6 min readEA link

Sur­viv­ing Global Catas­tro­phe in Nu­clear Sub­marines as Refuges

turchin5 Apr 2017 8:06 UTC
14 points
5 commentsEA link

21 Re­cent Publi­ca­tions on Ex­is­ten­tial Risk (Sep 2019 up­date)

HaydnBelfield5 Nov 2019 14:26 UTC
31 points
3 comments13 min readEA link

Defin­ing Meta Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

rhys_lindmark9 Jul 2019 18:16 UTC
12 points
3 comments4 min readEA link

Cen­tre for the Study of Ex­is­ten­tial Risk Four Month Re­port Oc­to­ber 2019 - Jan­uary 2020

HaydnBelfield8 Apr 2020 13:28 UTC
8 points
0 comments17 min readEA link

19 Re­cent Publi­ca­tions on Ex­is­ten­tial Risk (Jan, Feb & Mar 2020 up­date)

HaydnBelfield8 Apr 2020 13:19 UTC
13 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

16 Re­cent Publi­ca­tions on Ex­is­ten­tial Risk (Nov & Dec 2019 up­date)

HaydnBelfield15 Jan 2020 12:07 UTC
20 points
0 comments8 min readEA link

Cen­tre for the Study of Ex­is­ten­tial Risk Six Month Re­port April—Septem­ber 2019

HaydnBelfield30 Sep 2019 19:20 UTC
14 points
1 comment16 min readEA link

Cen­tre for the Study of Ex­is­ten­tial Risk Six Month Re­port: Novem­ber 2018 - April 2019

HaydnBelfield1 May 2019 15:34 UTC
10 points
16 comments15 min readEA link

CSER Spe­cial Is­sue: ‘Fu­tures of Re­search in Catas­trophic and Ex­is­ten­tial Risk’

HaydnBelfield2 Oct 2018 17:18 UTC
9 points
1 commentEA link

Cen­tre for the Study of Ex­is­ten­tial Risk: Six Month Re­port May-Oc­to­ber 2018

HaydnBelfield30 Nov 2018 20:32 UTC
26 points
2 commentsEA link

Cause Pri­ori­ti­za­tion in Light of In­spira­tional Disasters

stecas7 Jun 2020 19:52 UTC
0 points
15 comments3 min readEA link

ALLFED 2019 An­nual Re­port and Fundrais­ing Appeal

AronM23 Nov 2019 2:05 UTC
36 points
12 comments21 min readEA link

Differ­en­tial tech­nolog­i­cal de­vel­op­ment

james_aung25 Jun 2020 10:54 UTC
27 points
7 comments5 min readEA link

Civ­i­liza­tion Re-Emerg­ing After a Catas­trophic Collapse

MichaelA27 Jun 2020 3:22 UTC
30 points
17 comments2 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Prevent­ing hu­man extinction

Peter Singer19 Aug 2013 21:07 UTC
12 points
8 commentsEA link

FLI AI Align­ment pod­cast: Evan Hub­inger on In­ner Align­ment, Outer Align­ment, and Pro­pos­als for Build­ing Safe Ad­vanced AI

evhub1 Jul 2020 20:59 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(futureoflife.org)

[Question] Are there su­perfore­casts for ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Alex HT7 Jul 2020 7:39 UTC
24 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

‘Ex­is­ten­tial Risk and Growth’ Deep Dive #2 - A Crit­i­cal Look at Model Conclusions

Ben_Snodin18 Aug 2020 10:25 UTC
48 points
8 comments17 min readEA link

Carl Ro­bichaud: Fac­ing the risk of nu­clear war in the 21st century

EA Global Transcripts15 Jul 2020 17:17 UTC
12 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

A list of good heuris­tics that the case for AI X-risk fails

Aaron Gertler16 Jul 2020 9:56 UTC
23 points
9 comments2 min readEA link
(www.alignmentforum.org)

Mike Hue­mer on The Case for Tyranny

casebash16 Jul 2020 9:57 UTC
24 points
4 comments1 min readEA link
(fakenous.net)

Im­prov­ing the fu­ture by in­fluenc­ing ac­tors’ benev­olence, in­tel­li­gence, and power

MichaelA20 Jul 2020 10:00 UTC
56 points
14 comments17 min readEA link

Up­date on civ­i­liza­tional col­lapse research

landfish10 Feb 2020 23:40 UTC
52 points
7 comments3 min readEA link

Fireside Chat: Q&A with Toby Ord

EA Global Transcripts21 Jul 2020 16:23 UTC
11 points
0 comments26 min readEA link

Fireside Chat with Bon­nie Jenkins

EA Global Transcripts22 Jul 2020 15:59 UTC
17 points
0 comments25 min readEA link

In­tel­lec­tual Diver­sity in AI Safety

KR22 Jul 2020 19:07 UTC
19 points
8 comments3 min readEA link

Scru­ti­niz­ing AI Risk (80K, #81) - v. quick summary

Louis_Dixon23 Jul 2020 19:02 UTC
10 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Per­sonal thoughts on ca­reers in AI policy and strategy

carrickflynn27 Sep 2017 16:52 UTC
46 points
29 commentsEA link

Com­mon ground for longtermists

Tobias_Baumann29 Jul 2020 10:26 UTC
59 points
8 comments4 min readEA link

A pro­posed ad­just­ment to the as­tro­nom­i­cal waste argument

Nick_Beckstead27 May 2013 4:00 UTC
15 points
1 commentEA link

Con­ver­sa­tion with Holden Karnofsky, Nick Beck­stead, and Eliezer Yud­kowsky on the “long-run” per­spec­tive on effec­tive altruism

Nick_Beckstead18 Aug 2014 4:30 UTC
4 points
7 commentsEA link

EA read­ing list: longter­mism and ex­is­ten­tial risks

richard_ngo3 Aug 2020 9:52 UTC
33 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

The ex­pected value of ex­tinc­tion risk re­duc­tion is positive

JanBrauner9 Dec 2018 8:00 UTC
34 points
19 comments61 min readEA link

Ex­tinc­tion risk re­duc­tion and moral cir­cle ex­pan­sion: Spec­u­lat­ing sus­pi­cious convergence

MichaelA4 Aug 2020 11:38 UTC
11 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Ad­dress­ing Global Poverty as a Strat­egy to Im­prove the Long-Term Future

bshumway7 Aug 2020 6:27 UTC
33 points
18 comments16 min readEA link

On Col­lapse Risk (C-Risk)

Pawntoe42 Jan 2020 5:10 UTC
34 points
10 comments8 min readEA link

My cur­rent thoughts on MIRI’s “highly re­li­able agent de­sign” work

Daniel_Dewey7 Jul 2017 1:17 UTC
50 points
64 commentsEA link

Cost-Effec­tive­ness of Foods for Global Catas­tro­phes: Even Bet­ter than Be­fore?

Denkenberger19 Nov 2018 21:57 UTC
21 points
4 commentsEA link

Should we be spend­ing no less on al­ter­nate foods than AI now?

Denkenberger29 Oct 2017 23:28 UTC
32 points
9 commentsEA link

[Paper] In­ter­ven­tions that May Prevent or Mol­lify Su­per­vol­canic Eruptions

Denkenberger15 Jan 2018 21:46 UTC
20 points
5 commentsEA link

APPG on Fu­ture Gen­er­a­tions im­pact re­port – Rais­ing the pro­file of fu­ture gen­er­a­tion in the UK Parliament

weeatquince12 Aug 2020 14:24 UTC
86 points
2 comments17 min readEA link

Should We Pri­ori­tize Long-Term Ex­is­ten­tial Risk?

MichaelDickens20 Aug 2020 2:23 UTC
28 points
17 comments3 min readEA link

We’re (sur­pris­ingly) more pos­i­tive about tack­ling bio risks: out­comes of a survey

Sanjay25 Aug 2020 9:14 UTC
48 points
5 comments11 min readEA link

Risks from Atom­i­cally Pre­cise Manufacturing

MichaelA25 Aug 2020 9:53 UTC
26 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

A case for strat­egy re­search: what it is and why we need more of it

SiebeRozendal20 Jun 2019 20:18 UTC
53 points
8 comments20 min readEA link

Giv­ing Now vs. Later for Ex­is­ten­tial Risk: An Ini­tial Approach

MichaelDickens29 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
11 points
2 comments30 min readEA link

A (Very) Short His­tory of the Col­lapse of Civ­i­liza­tions, and Why it Matters

Davidmanheim30 Aug 2020 7:49 UTC
42 points
16 comments3 min readEA link

Kevin Esvelt: Miti­gat­ing catas­trophic biorisks

EA Global Transcripts3 Sep 2020 18:11 UTC
28 points
0 comments24 min readEA link

3 sug­ges­tions about jar­gon in EA

MichaelA5 Jul 2020 3:37 UTC
98 points
16 comments5 min readEA link

AMA: To­bias Bau­mann, Cen­ter for Re­duc­ing Suffering

Tobias_Baumann6 Sep 2020 10:45 UTC
39 points
42 comments1 min readEA link

Model­ling the odds of re­cov­ery from civ­i­liza­tional collapse

MichaelA17 Sep 2020 11:58 UTC
26 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Hiring en­g­ineers and re­searchers to help al­ign GPT-3

Paul_Christiano1 Oct 2020 18:52 UTC
106 points
19 comments3 min readEA link

Quotes about the long reflection

MichaelA5 Mar 2020 7:48 UTC
51 points
12 comments13 min readEA link

[Question] What ques­tions could COVID-19 provide ev­i­dence on that would help guide fu­ture EA de­ci­sions?

MichaelA27 Mar 2020 5:51 UTC
7 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Differ­en­tial progress /​ in­tel­lec­tual progress /​ tech­nolog­i­cal development

MichaelA24 Apr 2020 14:08 UTC
30 points
14 comments7 min readEA link

Space gov­er­nance is im­por­tant, tractable and neglected

Tobias_Baumann7 Jan 2020 11:24 UTC
71 points
17 comments7 min readEA link

How tractable is chang­ing the course of his­tory?

Jamie_Harris22 May 2019 15:29 UTC
40 points
2 comments7 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

Bot­tle­necks and Solu­tions for the X-Risk Ecosystem

FlorentBerthet8 Oct 2018 12:47 UTC
34 points
14 commentsEA link

Economist: “What’s the worst that could hap­pen”. A pos­i­tive, sharable but vague ar­ti­cle on Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

Nathan Young8 Jul 2020 10:37 UTC
11 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Why al­tru­ism at all?

Singleton12 Jul 2020 22:04 UTC
−2 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Question] A bill to mas­sively ex­pand NSF to tech do­mains. What’s the rele­vance for x-risk?

EdoArad12 Jul 2020 15:20 UTC
22 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Cli­mate change dona­tion recommendations

Sanjay16 Jul 2020 21:17 UTC
36 points
5 comments14 min readEA link

[Question] Put­ting Peo­ple First in a Cul­ture of De­hu­man­iza­tion

jhealy22 Jul 2020 3:31 UTC
16 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Is nan­otech­nol­ogy (such as APM) im­por­tant for EAs’ to work on?

pixel_brownie_software12 Mar 2020 15:36 UTC
6 points
9 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What do we do if AI doesn’t take over the world, but still causes a sig­nifi­cant global prob­lem?

James_Banks2 Aug 2020 3:35 UTC
16 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

State Space of X-Risk Trajectories

David_Kristoffersson6 Feb 2020 13:37 UTC
24 points
6 comments9 min readEA link

The Precipice: a risky re­view by a non-EA

fmoreno8 Aug 2020 14:40 UTC
12 points
0 comments18 min readEA link

Ur­gency vs. Pa­tience—a Toy Model

Alex HT19 Aug 2020 14:13 UTC
39 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] Is ex­is­ten­tial risk more press­ing than other ways to im­prove the long-term fu­ture?

evelynciara20 Aug 2020 3:50 UTC
23 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

On­line Con­fer­ence Op­por­tu­nity for EA Grad Students

jonathancourtney21 Aug 2020 17:31 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

On The Rel­a­tive Long-Term Fu­ture Im­por­tance of In­vest­ments in Eco­nomic Growth and Global Catas­trophic Risk Reduction

poliboni30 Mar 2020 20:11 UTC
32 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Question] Are so­cial me­dia al­gorithms an ex­is­ten­tial risk?

BarryGrimes15 Sep 2020 8:52 UTC
22 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Is Tech­nol­ogy Ac­tu­ally Mak­ing Things Bet­ter? – Pairagraph

evelynciara1 Oct 2020 16:06 UTC
16 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(www.pairagraph.com)

New 3-hour pod­cast with An­ders Sand­berg about Grand Futures

Gus Docker6 Oct 2020 10:47 UTC
14 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

What Helped the Voice­less? His­tor­i­cal Case Studies

Mauricio11 Oct 2020 3:38 UTC
78 points
9 comments91 min readEA link

Leopold Aschen­bren­ner re­turns to X-risk and growth

nickwhitaker20 Oct 2020 23:24 UTC
24 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

4 Years Later: Pres­i­dent Trump and Global Catas­trophic Risk

HaydnBelfield25 Oct 2020 16:28 UTC
23 points
9 comments9 min readEA link