Thanks Bruce, would you still think this if Strongminds ditched their adolescent programs as a result of this study and continued with their core groups with older women?
1) I think this RCT is an important proxy for StrongMinds (SM)‘s performance ‘in situ’, and worth updating on—in part because it is currently the only completed RCT of SM. Uninformed readers who read what is currently on e.g. GWWC[1]/FP[2]/HLI website might reasonably get the wrong impression of the evidence base behind the recommendation around SM (i.e. there are no concerns sufficiently noteworthy to merit inclusion as a caveat). I think the effective giving community should have a higher bar for being proactively transparent here—it is much better to include (at minimum) a relevant disclaimer like this, than to be asked questions by donors and make a claim that there wasn’t capacity to include.[3]
2) If a SM recommendation is justified as a result of SM’s programme changes, this should still be communicated for trust building purposes (e.g. “We are recommending SM despite [Baird et al RCT results], because …), both for those who are on the fence about deferring, and for those who now have a reason to re-affirm their existing trust on EA org recommendations.[4]
3) Help potential donors make more informed decisions—for example, informed readers who may be unsure about HLI’s methodology and wanted to wait for the RCT results should not have to go search this up themselves or look for a fairly buried comment thread on a post from >1 year ago in order to make this decision when looking at EA recommendations / links to donate—I don’t think it’s an unreasonable amount of effort compared to how it may help. This line of reasoning may also apply to other evaluators (e.g. GWWC evaluator investigations).[5]
GWWC website currently says it only includes recommendations after they review it through their Evaluating Evaluators work, and their evaluation of HLI did not include any quality checks of HLI’s work itself nor finalise a conclusion. Similarly, they say: “we don’t currently include StrongMinds as one of our recommended programs but you can still donate to it via our donation platform”.
We recommend StrongMinds because IPT-G has shown significant promise as an evidence-backed intervention that can durably reduce depression symptoms. Crucial to our analysis are previous RCTs
I’m not suggesting at all that they should have done this by now, only ~2 weeks after the Baird RCT results were made public. But I do think three months is a reasonable timeframe for this.
If there was an RCT that showed malaria chemoprevention cost more than $6000 per DALY averted in Nigeria (GDP/capita * 3), rather than per life saved (ballpark), I would want to know about it. And I would want to know about it even if Malaria Consortium decided to drop their work in Nigeria, and EA evaluators continued to recommend Malaria Consortium as a result. And how organisations go about communicating updates like this do impact my personal view on how much I should defer to them wrt charity recommendations.
Of course, based on HLI’s current analysis/approach, the ?disappointing/?unsurprising result of this RCT (even if it was on the adult population) would not have meaningfully changed the outcome of the recommendation, even if SM did not make this pivot (pg 66):
Therefore, even if the StrongMinds-specific evidence finds a small total recipient effect (as we present here as a placeholder), and we relied solely on this evidence, then it would still result in a cost-effectiveness that is similar or greater than that of GiveDirectly because StrongMinds programme is very cheap to deliver.
And while I think this is a conversation that has already been hashed out enough on the forum, I do think the point stands—potential donors who disagree with or are uncertain about HLI’s methodology here would benefit from knowing the results of the RCT, and it’s not an unreasonable ask for organisations doing charity evaluations / recommendations to include this information.
Acknowledging that this is DALYs not WELLBYs! OTOH, this conclusion is not the GiveWell or GiveDirectly bar, but a ~mainstream global health cost-effectiveness standard of ~3x GDP per capita per DALY averted (in this case, the ~$18k USD PPP/DALY averted of SM is below the ~$7k USD PPP/DALY bar for Uganda)
Nice one Bruce. I think I agree that it should be communicated like you say for reasons 2 and 3
I don’t think this is a good proxy for their main programs though, as this RCT looks a very different thing than their regular programming. I think other RCTs on group therapy in adult women from the region are better proxies than this study on adolescents.
Why do you think it’s a particularly good proxy? In my mind the same org doing a different treatment, (that seems to work but only a little for a short ish time) with many similarities to their regular treatment of course.
Like I said a year ago, I would have much rather this has been an RCT on Strongminds regular programs rather than this one on a very different program for adolescents. I understand though that “does similar group psychotherapy also work for adolescents” is a more interesting question from a researcher’s perspective, although less useful for all of us deciding just how good regular StrongMinds group psychotherapy is.
It sounds like you’re interpreting my claim to be “the Baird RCT is a particularly good proxy (or possibly even better than other RCTs on group therapy in adult women) for the SM adult programme effectiveness”, but this isn’t actually my claim here; and while I think one could reasonably make some different, stronger (donor-relevant) claims based on the discussions on the forum and the Baird RCT results, mine are largely just: “it’s an important proxy”, “it’s worth updating on”, and “the relevant considerations/updates should be easily accessible on various recommendation pages”. I definitely agree that an RCT on the adult programme would have been better for understanding the adult programme.
(I’ll probably check out of the thread here for now, but good chatting as always Nick! hope you’re well)
Thanks Bruce, would you still think this if Strongminds ditched their adolescent programs as a result of this study and continued with their core groups with older women?
Yes, because:
1) I think this RCT is an important proxy for StrongMinds (SM)‘s performance ‘in situ’, and worth updating on—in part because it is currently the only completed RCT of SM. Uninformed readers who read what is currently on e.g. GWWC[1]/FP[2]/HLI website might reasonably get the wrong impression of the evidence base behind the recommendation around SM (i.e. there are no concerns sufficiently noteworthy to merit inclusion as a caveat). I think the effective giving community should have a higher bar for being proactively transparent here—it is much better to include (at minimum) a relevant disclaimer like this, than to be asked questions by donors and make a claim that there wasn’t capacity to include.[3]
2) If a SM recommendation is justified as a result of SM’s programme changes, this should still be communicated for trust building purposes (e.g. “We are recommending SM despite [Baird et al RCT results], because …), both for those who are on the fence about deferring, and for those who now have a reason to re-affirm their existing trust on EA org recommendations.[4]
3) Help potential donors make more informed decisions—for example, informed readers who may be unsure about HLI’s methodology and wanted to wait for the RCT results should not have to go search this up themselves or look for a fairly buried comment thread on a post from >1 year ago in order to make this decision when looking at EA recommendations / links to donate—I don’t think it’s an unreasonable amount of effort compared to how it may help. This line of reasoning may also apply to other evaluators (e.g. GWWC evaluator investigations).[5]
GWWC website currently says it only includes recommendations after they review it through their Evaluating Evaluators work, and their evaluation of HLI did not include any quality checks of HLI’s work itself nor finalise a conclusion. Similarly, they say: “we don’t currently include StrongMinds as one of our recommended programs but you can still donate to it via our donation platform”.
Founders Pledge’s current website says:
I’m not suggesting at all that they should have done this by now, only ~2 weeks after the Baird RCT results were made public. But I do think three months is a reasonable timeframe for this.
If there was an RCT that showed malaria chemoprevention cost more than $6000 per DALY averted in Nigeria (GDP/capita * 3), rather than per life saved (ballpark), I would want to know about it. And I would want to know about it even if Malaria Consortium decided to drop their work in Nigeria, and EA evaluators continued to recommend Malaria Consortium as a result. And how organisations go about communicating updates like this do impact my personal view on how much I should defer to them wrt charity recommendations.
Of course, based on HLI’s current analysis/approach, the ?disappointing/?unsurprising result of this RCT (even if it was on the adult population) would not have meaningfully changed the outcome of the recommendation, even if SM did not make this pivot (pg 66):
And while I think this is a conversation that has already been hashed out enough on the forum, I do think the point stands—potential donors who disagree with or are uncertain about HLI’s methodology here would benefit from knowing the results of the RCT, and it’s not an unreasonable ask for organisations doing charity evaluations / recommendations to include this information.
Based on Nigeria’s GDP/capita * 3
Acknowledging that this is DALYs not WELLBYs! OTOH, this conclusion is not the GiveWell or GiveDirectly bar, but a ~mainstream global health cost-effectiveness standard of ~3x GDP per capita per DALY averted (in this case, the ~$18k USD PPP/DALY averted of SM is below the ~$7k USD PPP/DALY bar for Uganda)
Nice one Bruce. I think I agree that it should be communicated like you say for reasons 2 and 3
I don’t think this is a good proxy for their main programs though, as this RCT looks a very different thing than their regular programming. I think other RCTs on group therapy in adult women from the region are better proxies than this study on adolescents.
Why do you think it’s a particularly good proxy? In my mind the same org doing a different treatment, (that seems to work but only a little for a short ish time) with many similarities to their regular treatment of course.
Like I said a year ago, I would have much rather this has been an RCT on Strongminds regular programs rather than this one on a very different program for adolescents. I understand though that “does similar group psychotherapy also work for adolescents” is a more interesting question from a researcher’s perspective, although less useful for all of us deciding just how good regular StrongMinds group psychotherapy is.
It sounds like you’re interpreting my claim to be “the Baird RCT is a particularly good proxy (or possibly even better than other RCTs on group therapy in adult women) for the SM adult programme effectiveness”, but this isn’t actually my claim here; and while I think one could reasonably make some different, stronger (donor-relevant) claims based on the discussions on the forum and the Baird RCT results, mine are largely just: “it’s an important proxy”, “it’s worth updating on”, and “the relevant considerations/updates should be easily accessible on various recommendation pages”. I definitely agree that an RCT on the adult programme would have been better for understanding the adult programme.
(I’ll probably check out of the thread here for now, but good chatting as always Nick! hope you’re well)
Nice one 100% agree no need to check in again!