HLI—but if for whatever reason they’re unable or unwilling to receive the donation at resolution, Strongminds.
The ‘resolution criteria’ are also potentially ambiguous (my bad). I intend to resolve any ambiguity stringently against me, but you are welcome to be my adjudicator.
[To add: I’d guess ~30-something% chance I end up paying out: d = 0.4 is at or below pooled effect estimates for psychotherapy generally. I am banking on significant discounts with increasing study size and quality (as well as other things I mention above I take as adverse indicators), but even if I price these right, I expect high variance.
I set the bar this low (versus, say, d = 0.6 - at the ~ 5th percentile of HLI’s estimate) primarily to make a strong rod for my own back. Mordantly criticising an org whilst they are making a funding request in a financially precarious position should not be done lightly. Although I’d stand by my criticism of HLI even if the trial found Strongminds was even better than HLI predicted, I would regret being quite as strident if the results were any less than dramatically discordant.
If so, me retreating to something like “Meh, they got lucky”/”Sure I was (/kinda) wrong, but you didn’t deserve to be right” seems craven after over-cooking remarks potentially highly adverse to HLI’s fundraising efforts. Fairer would be that I suffer some financial embarrassment, which helps compensate HLI for their injury from my excess.
Perhaps I could have (or should have) done something better. But in fairness to me, I think this is all supererogatory on my part: I do not think my comment is the only example of stark criticism on this forum, but it might be unique in its author levying an expected cost of over $1000 on themselves for making it.]
Is your 5K donation promised to Strongminds or HLI?
HLI—but if for whatever reason they’re unable or unwilling to receive the donation at resolution, Strongminds.
The ‘resolution criteria’ are also potentially ambiguous (my bad). I intend to resolve any ambiguity stringently against me, but you are welcome to be my adjudicator.
[To add: I’d guess ~30-something% chance I end up paying out: d = 0.4 is at or below pooled effect estimates for psychotherapy generally. I am banking on significant discounts with increasing study size and quality (as well as other things I mention above I take as adverse indicators), but even if I price these right, I expect high variance.
I set the bar this low (versus, say, d = 0.6 - at the ~ 5th percentile of HLI’s estimate) primarily to make a strong rod for my own back. Mordantly criticising an org whilst they are making a funding request in a financially precarious position should not be done lightly. Although I’d stand by my criticism of HLI even if the trial found Strongminds was even better than HLI predicted, I would regret being quite as strident if the results were any less than dramatically discordant.
If so, me retreating to something like “Meh, they got lucky”/”Sure I was (/kinda) wrong, but you didn’t deserve to be right” seems craven after over-cooking remarks potentially highly adverse to HLI’s fundraising efforts. Fairer would be that I suffer some financial embarrassment, which helps compensate HLI for their injury from my excess.
Perhaps I could have (or should have) done something better. But in fairness to me, I think this is all supererogatory on my part: I do not think my comment is the only example of stark criticism on this forum, but it might be unique in its author levying an expected cost of over $1000 on themselves for making it.]
Would you happen to have a prediction of the likelihood of d > or = 0.6? (No money involved, you’ve put more than enough $ on the line already!)
8%, but perhaps expected drift of a factor of two either way if I thought about it for a few hours vs. a few minutes.