HLIâbut if for whatever reason theyâre unable or unwilling to receive the donation at resolution, Strongminds.
The âresolution criteriaâ are also potentially ambiguous (my bad). I intend to resolve any ambiguity stringently against me, but you are welcome to be my adjudicator.
[To add: Iâd guess ~30-something% chance I end up paying out: d = 0.4 is at or below pooled effect estimates for psychotherapy generally. I am banking on significant discounts with increasing study size and quality (as well as other things I mention above I take as adverse indicators), but even if I price these right, I expect high variance.
I set the bar this low (versus, say, d = 0.6 - at the ~ 5th percentile of HLIâs estimate) primarily to make a strong rod for my own back. Mordantly criticising an org whilst they are making a funding request in a financially precarious position should not be done lightly. Although Iâd stand by my criticism of HLI even if the trial found Strongminds was even better than HLI predicted, I would regret being quite as strident if the results were any less than dramatically discordant.
If so, me retreating to something like âMeh, they got luckyâ/ââSure I was (/âkinda) wrong, but you didnât deserve to be rightâ seems craven after over-cooking remarks potentially highly adverse to HLIâs fundraising efforts. Fairer would be that I suffer some financial embarrassment, which helps compensate HLI for their injury from my excess.
Perhaps I could have (or should have) done something better. But in fairness to me, I think this is all supererogatory on my part: I do not think my comment is the only example of stark criticism on this forum, but it might be unique in its author levying an expected cost of over $1000 on themselves for making it.]
HLIâbut if for whatever reason theyâre unable or unwilling to receive the donation at resolution, Strongminds.
The âresolution criteriaâ are also potentially ambiguous (my bad). I intend to resolve any ambiguity stringently against me, but you are welcome to be my adjudicator.
[To add: Iâd guess ~30-something% chance I end up paying out: d = 0.4 is at or below pooled effect estimates for psychotherapy generally. I am banking on significant discounts with increasing study size and quality (as well as other things I mention above I take as adverse indicators), but even if I price these right, I expect high variance.
I set the bar this low (versus, say, d = 0.6 - at the ~ 5th percentile of HLIâs estimate) primarily to make a strong rod for my own back. Mordantly criticising an org whilst they are making a funding request in a financially precarious position should not be done lightly. Although Iâd stand by my criticism of HLI even if the trial found Strongminds was even better than HLI predicted, I would regret being quite as strident if the results were any less than dramatically discordant.
If so, me retreating to something like âMeh, they got luckyâ/ââSure I was (/âkinda) wrong, but you didnât deserve to be rightâ seems craven after over-cooking remarks potentially highly adverse to HLIâs fundraising efforts. Fairer would be that I suffer some financial embarrassment, which helps compensate HLI for their injury from my excess.
Perhaps I could have (or should have) done something better. But in fairness to me, I think this is all supererogatory on my part: I do not think my comment is the only example of stark criticism on this forum, but it might be unique in its author levying an expected cost of over $1000 on themselves for making it.]
Would you happen to have a prediction of the likelihood of d > or = 0.6? (No money involved, youâve put more than enough $ on the line already!)
8%, but perhaps expected drift of a factor of two either way if I thought about it for a few hours vs. a few minutes.