Yeah I think it probably makes sense not to hold bonds if you’re using leverage and you can’t get leverage at close to the risk-free rate. I personally don’t hold any long-only bonds. But the argument for holding bonds is that they might be negatively correlated with stocks, in which case a negative expected return might still be worth it. Historically they’ve had close to 0 correlation, not a negative correlation, so I don’t find this argument that persuasive.
For commodities, their returns are much harder to project than bonds (where you can just look at the yield), so it’s hard to say whether they’re worth it. I personally don’t hold any long-only commodities.
What are your thoughts on high-yield corporate bonds or emerging markets bonds? This kind of bond offers non-zero interest rates but of course also entail higher risk. Also, these markets aren’t (to my knowledge) distorted by the Fed buying huge amounts of bonds.
Theoretically, there should be some diversification benefit from adding this kind of bond, though it’s all positively correlated. But unfortunately, ETFs on these kinds of bonds have much higher fees.
“We find that an expansionary US QE shock has significant effects on financial variables in EMEs. It leads to an exchange rate appreciation, a reduction in long-term bond yields, a stock market boom, and an increase in capital inflows to these countries.”
I don’t know much about emerging market bonds so I can’t make any confident claims, but I can say how I am thinking out it for my personal portfolio. I considered holding emerging market bonds because the yield spread between them and and developed-market bonds is unusually high. I decided not to hold them because I don’t think they provide enough diversification benefit in the tails. Since I invest with leverage, it doesn’t necessarily make sense for me to maximally diversify, I only hold assets if I think the benefit overcomes the extra cost of leverage. But I do believe it might make sense to hold emerging bonds for someone with a less leveraged, more diversified portfolio. That said, I would consider them a “risky” asset, not a “safe” asset, and plan accordingly.
The drawdowns of major ETFs on this (e.g. EMB / JNK) during the corona crash or 2008 are roughly 2⁄3 to 3⁄4 of how much stocks (the S&P 500) went down. So I agree the diversification benefit is limited. The question, bracketing the point on leverage extra cost, is whether the positive EV of emerging markets bonds / high yield bonds is more or less than 2⁄3 to 3⁄4 of the positive EV of stocks. That’s pretty hard to say—there’s a lot of uncertainty on both sides. But if that is the case and one can borrow at very good rates (e.g. through futures or box spread financing) then the best portfolio should be a levered up combination of bonds & stocks rather than just stocks.
FWIW, I’m in a similar position regarding my personal portfolio; I’ve so far not invested in these asset classes but am actively considering it.
Yeah I think it probably makes sense not to hold bonds if you’re using leverage and you can’t get leverage at close to the risk-free rate. I personally don’t hold any long-only bonds. But the argument for holding bonds is that they might be negatively correlated with stocks, in which case a negative expected return might still be worth it. Historically they’ve had close to 0 correlation, not a negative correlation, so I don’t find this argument that persuasive.
For commodities, their returns are much harder to project than bonds (where you can just look at the yield), so it’s hard to say whether they’re worth it. I personally don’t hold any long-only commodities.
What are your thoughts on high-yield corporate bonds or emerging markets bonds? This kind of bond offers non-zero interest rates but of course also entail higher risk. Also, these markets aren’t (to my knowledge) distorted by the Fed buying huge amounts of bonds.
Theoretically, there should be some diversification benefit from adding this kind of bond, though it’s all positively correlated. But unfortunately, ETFs on these kinds of bonds have much higher fees.
[disclosure: not an economist or investment professional]
This seems wrong — the spillover effects of 2008–13 QE on EM capital markets are fairly well-established (cf the ‘Taper Tantrum’ of 2013).
see e.g. Effects of US Quantitative Easing on Emerging Market Economies
I don’t know much about emerging market bonds so I can’t make any confident claims, but I can say how I am thinking out it for my personal portfolio. I considered holding emerging market bonds because the yield spread between them and and developed-market bonds is unusually high. I decided not to hold them because I don’t think they provide enough diversification benefit in the tails. Since I invest with leverage, it doesn’t necessarily make sense for me to maximally diversify, I only hold assets if I think the benefit overcomes the extra cost of leverage. But I do believe it might make sense to hold emerging bonds for someone with a less leveraged, more diversified portfolio. That said, I would consider them a “risky” asset, not a “safe” asset, and plan accordingly.
The drawdowns of major ETFs on this (e.g. EMB / JNK) during the corona crash or 2008 are roughly 2⁄3 to 3⁄4 of how much stocks (the S&P 500) went down. So I agree the diversification benefit is limited. The question, bracketing the point on leverage extra cost, is whether the positive EV of emerging markets bonds / high yield bonds is more or less than 2⁄3 to 3⁄4 of the positive EV of stocks. That’s pretty hard to say—there’s a lot of uncertainty on both sides. But if that is the case and one can borrow at very good rates (e.g. through futures or box spread financing) then the best portfolio should be a levered up combination of bonds & stocks rather than just stocks.
FWIW, I’m in a similar position regarding my personal portfolio; I’ve so far not invested in these asset classes but am actively considering it.