https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_transitions might be relevant.
The Geels book cited in the article (Geels, F.W., 2005. Technological transitions and system innovations. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.) has a bunch of interesting case studies I read a while ago and a (I think popular) framework for technological change, but I am not sure the framework is sufficiently precise to be very predictive (and thus empirically validatable).
I don’t have any particular sources on this, but the economic literature on the effects of regulation might be quite relevant. In particular, I do remember attending a lecture arguing that limited liability played an important role for innovation during the industrial revolution.