I’d be curious if the model could be refined or adjusted. You’re right that this contributors follow a Pareto distribution, but it’s not obvious to me what this would mean in the model. It could mean that it’s worth recruiting lots of new people because one may be a ‘big fish’, or it could mean that it’s more worth taking people who are doing very well and making sure they do better. It depends on other factors.
I guess this would help us to at least look at the model through the lens of the most high-impact (or people with ‘potential to be high impact’, whatever that may mean) people.
That said, the really big question is what the purpose of the model is. What is the decision being made? If it is being used by ‘average ea-forum visitors’ to do local work, it’s quite different from a model aimed at a particular EA org. For instance, many people may not really be able to persuade or help those in the top 3%, but they may be able to make great gains with the others.
I’d be curious if the model could be refined or adjusted. You’re right that this contributors follow a Pareto distribution, but it’s not obvious to me what this would mean in the model. It could mean that it’s worth recruiting lots of new people because one may be a ‘big fish’, or it could mean that it’s more worth taking people who are doing very well and making sure they do better. It depends on other factors.
I guess this would help us to at least look at the model through the lens of the most high-impact (or people with ‘potential to be high impact’, whatever that may mean) people.
That said, the really big question is what the purpose of the model is. What is the decision being made? If it is being used by ‘average ea-forum visitors’ to do local work, it’s quite different from a model aimed at a particular EA org. For instance, many people may not really be able to persuade or help those in the top 3%, but they may be able to make great gains with the others.