Yeah one strong reason to believe in your own judgement over that of prediction markets/prediction engine medians is if you think you have additional important additional information that the community was not able to update on. In this case, the question was closed in mid-2018 and the paper came out in 2019.
Yeah one strong reason to believe in your own judgement over that of prediction markets/prediction engine medians is if you think you have additional important additional information that the community was not able to update on. In this case, the question was closed in mid-2018 and the paper came out in 2019.
Thanks Linch; I actually missed that the prediction had closed!
Yeah the Metaculus UI is not the most intuitive, I should flag this at some point.