He was incentivized to decide whether to quit or to persevere (at the cost of other opportunities.) For accuracy, all he needed was “likely enough to be worth it.” And yet, at the moment when it should have been most evident what this likelihood was, he was so far off in his estimate that he almost quit.
Imagine if a good EA stopped him in his moment of despair and encouraged him, with all the tools available, to create the most accurate estimate, I bet he’d still consider quitting. He might even be more convinced that it’s hopeless.
He was incentivized to decide whether to quit or to persevere (at the cost of other opportunities.) For accuracy, all he needed was “likely enough to be worth it.” And yet, at the moment when it should have been most evident what this likelihood was, he was so far off in his estimate that he almost quit.
This seems like it’s pretty weak evidence given that he did in fact continue.
He was incentivized to decide whether to quit or to persevere (at the cost of other opportunities.) For accuracy, all he needed was “likely enough to be worth it.” And yet, at the moment when it should have been most evident what this likelihood was, he was so far off in his estimate that he almost quit.
Imagine if a good EA stopped him in his moment of despair and encouraged him, with all the tools available, to create the most accurate estimate, I bet he’d still consider quitting. He might even be more convinced that it’s hopeless.
This seems like it’s pretty weak evidence given that he did in fact continue.