I disagree that the unknowns cannot be reasoned about.
There are known unknowns and unknown unknowns, and we can quantify that with ” uncertainty”.
You can say: “here’s this thing I know exists, but I have no measure of it. I estimate it at x”.
You can also quantify “unknown unknowns”. You can say “there are things that I don’t know, and I’m not even aware of them”. You can make estimates about this as well.
Your idea of “unknowability” is simply wrong.
(I think you’re quite confused about how to reason under uncertainty and would benefit from reading about judgment under uncertainty. There’s a book of the same name, but there are also many useful posts about it on LessWrong.)
Toby Ord does most of this in his estimates of existential catastrophe in The Precipice.
Making an estimate about something you’re unaware of is like guessing the likelihood of the discovery of nuclear energy in 1850.
I can put a number on the likelihood of discovering something totally novel, but applying a number doesn’t mean it’s meaningful. A psychic could make quantified guesses and tell us about the factors involved in that assessment, but that doesn’t make it meaningful.
I disagree that the unknowns cannot be reasoned about.
There are known unknowns and unknown unknowns, and we can quantify that with ” uncertainty”.
You can say: “here’s this thing I know exists, but I have no measure of it. I estimate it at x”.
You can also quantify “unknown unknowns”. You can say “there are things that I don’t know, and I’m not even aware of them”. You can make estimates about this as well.
You can go even further. When considering your model, you can have uncertainty about the accuracy of your model. You can quantify your uncertainty about your model itself.
Your idea of “unknowability” is simply wrong. (I think you’re quite confused about how to reason under uncertainty and would benefit from reading about judgment under uncertainty. There’s a book of the same name, but there are also many useful posts about it on LessWrong.)
Toby Ord does most of this in his estimates of existential catastrophe in The Precipice.
Making an estimate about something you’re unaware of is like guessing the likelihood of the discovery of nuclear energy in 1850.
I can put a number on the likelihood of discovering something totally novel, but applying a number doesn’t mean it’s meaningful. A psychic could make quantified guesses and tell us about the factors involved in that assessment, but that doesn’t make it meaningful.