Making an estimate about something you’re unaware of is like guessing the likelihood of the discovery of nuclear energy in 1850.
I can put a number on the likelihood of discovering something totally novel, but applying a number doesn’t mean it’s meaningful. A psychic could make quantified guesses and tell us about the factors involved in that assessment, but that doesn’t make it meaningful.
Making an estimate about something you’re unaware of is like guessing the likelihood of the discovery of nuclear energy in 1850.
I can put a number on the likelihood of discovering something totally novel, but applying a number doesn’t mean it’s meaningful. A psychic could make quantified guesses and tell us about the factors involved in that assessment, but that doesn’t make it meaningful.