@Charles Kenny do you think emigration is good for basically every country or do you think it is mostly beneficial for low-income countries and could be bad for high-income countries?
Hi Oscar! I think emigration has the most potential impact on emigrant incomes when it is from poor countries and (secondarily) small countries—the first because the potential income gaps are the largest the second because the chance of finding the right fit for your talents is larger in larger countries (few small island states have a thriving automobile or software industry just because they take some scale). I’d also say that lower income countries with a growing workforce but few good jobs, that most need the trade and investment links and knowledge flows that come along with diaspora populations, do usually benefit the most from emigration.
Meanwhile high income countries seeing considerable net emigration rather than flows mostly in and some out are comparatively rare and are usually seeing something weird going on that is probably economic bad news. The US may be seeing net emigration at the moment, for example, and I don’t think it is a good sign for the country. More broadly, I think rich countries with low birth rates usually want to be seeing net immigration and if they aren’t it is bad for growth. Emigration in and of itself is not necessarily a problem in that it comes along with all of the trade, investment and knowledge generation links, but if it isn’t matched by higher immigration, it is often a worrying sign.
@Charles Kenny do you think emigration is good for basically every country or do you think it is mostly beneficial for low-income countries and could be bad for high-income countries?
Hi Oscar! I think emigration has the most potential impact on emigrant incomes when it is from poor countries and (secondarily) small countries—the first because the potential income gaps are the largest the second because the chance of finding the right fit for your talents is larger in larger countries (few small island states have a thriving automobile or software industry just because they take some scale). I’d also say that lower income countries with a growing workforce but few good jobs, that most need the trade and investment links and knowledge flows that come along with diaspora populations, do usually benefit the most from emigration.
Meanwhile high income countries seeing considerable net emigration rather than flows mostly in and some out are comparatively rare and are usually seeing something weird going on that is probably economic bad news. The US may be seeing net emigration at the moment, for example, and I don’t think it is a good sign for the country. More broadly, I think rich countries with low birth rates usually want to be seeing net immigration and if they aren’t it is bad for growth. Emigration in and of itself is not necessarily a problem in that it comes along with all of the trade, investment and knowledge generation links, but if it isn’t matched by higher immigration, it is often a worrying sign.