Ilya too!
Oscar Sykes
Karma: 183
I’d be interested to hear more about how you cut your funding by 24% while hiring 20 staff
Welcome to the forum, I’m a fan of the pod! Hoping to see some B2B SaaS content from you here in the coming months
This is so epic, keep up the good work!
I love having the profile button at the top, I currently find not having that a bit disorientating
This is extremely cool, you should all be very proud of yourselves
Alexander Berger answered pretty much this exact question on a old 80k episode
Well done, it’s super cool to see everything you guys have achieved this year. One thing I was surprised by is that EAGxs are almost three times cheaper than EAGs while having a slightly higher likelihood to recommend. I assume part of this is because EAGs are typically held in more expensive areas, but I’d be surprised if that explained all of it. Are there any other factors that explain the cost difference?
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Great post. I’m wondering if you could expand on this statement?Additionally, we have a higher tolerance for PR risks than most, and are thus able to fund a broader range of projects with higher expected impact.
Could you provide examples of grants with PR risks (hypothetical or real) that LTFF would fund but OpenPhil wouldn’t?
Oscar Sykes’s Quick takes
AI experts have said in polls that building AGI carries a 14-30% chance of causing human extinction!
My colleague took the median number of 14% from the latest AI Impacts survey
FWIW I believe the median value from the linked survey is 5%. The only relevant place where 14% shows up is that it is the mean probability researchers place on high-level machine intelligence being extremely bad for humanity. The median probability for the same answer is 5% and the median answer to the more specific question “What probability do you put on future AI advances causing human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species?” is also 5%
No clue, tough question
They all convincingly answer questions that have been the focus of debate in empirical economics for decades.
I would not say this is true of the medical debt RCT. I think it tells us very little about situations where people have more normal types of debt and actually expect to repay it
I like Eliezer’s tweet on this
Thanks for writing this. I found it really moving and admire your perseverance throughout the process
My impression is both that Rethink pays pretty decent salaries and that you guys find hiring additional researchers quite easy. Have you guys considered lowering your salaries? I know there are practical considerations that make this hard to do in the short-term but you could, say, offer lower salaries to new staff and give existing staff lower pay rises which would lower your staff costs over the medium term
Thanks so much, this is super informative.
Do you know if the price premium for potassium chloride is due to some fundamental thing? Or is it just because it is a smaller market and could have the potential to significantly decline in price if it became more popular?
Can you explain why you think doing safety work at these places is bad?