I think I may well have substantially overestimated the famine deaths due to the climatic effects. I had not noted Xia 2022′s Fig. 5a provides data for what would happen in a nuclear winter with international food trade, and equitable distribution of food (lesson, read crucial papers more carefully!).
In a 47 Tg scenario with a) equitable distribution of food, b) international food trade, c) all human edible livestock feed fed to humans, and d) no household food waste, calorie consumption in the worst year would be around 2 k kcal/​person/​day (top tick of the 3rd bar from the right), which is to say famine deaths due to the climatic effects would be negligible up to 47 Tg given a) to d). In my analysis, I assumed adaptation would be as good as b) to d), and that famine deaths due to the climatic effects would be negligible up to 10.5 Tg in Xia 2022′s climate model. So I implicitly assumed non-equitable distribution of food would increase the threshold for significant starvation by 36.5 Tg (= 47 − 10.5) in Xia 2022′s climate model. This seems like an overestimate of the negative effect of non-equitable distribution of food, so I believe I overestimated famine deaths due to the climatic effects.
I think I may well have substantially overestimated the famine deaths due to the climatic effects. I had not noted Xia 2022′s Fig. 5a provides data for what would happen in a nuclear winter with international food trade, and equitable distribution of food (lesson, read crucial papers more carefully!).
In a 47 Tg scenario with a) equitable distribution of food, b) international food trade, c) all human edible livestock feed fed to humans, and d) no household food waste, calorie consumption in the worst year would be around 2 k kcal/​person/​day (top tick of the 3rd bar from the right), which is to say famine deaths due to the climatic effects would be negligible up to 47 Tg given a) to d). In my analysis, I assumed adaptation would be as good as b) to d), and that famine deaths due to the climatic effects would be negligible up to 10.5 Tg in Xia 2022′s climate model. So I implicitly assumed non-equitable distribution of food would increase the threshold for significant starvation by 36.5 Tg (= 47 − 10.5) in Xia 2022′s climate model. This seems like an overestimate of the negative effect of non-equitable distribution of food, so I believe I overestimated famine deaths due to the climatic effects.