I feel like there’s just a crazy number of minority views (in the limit a bunch of psychoses held by just one individual), most of which must be wrong. We’re more likely to hear about minority views which later turn out to be correct, but it seems very implausible that the base rate of correctness is higher for minority views than majority views.
On the other hand I think there’s some distinction to be drawn between “minority view disagrees with strongly held majority view” and “minority view concerns something that majority mostly ignores / doesn’t have a view on”.
that is a fair point. departures from global majority opinion still seems like a pretty weak ‘fire alarm’ for being wrong. Taking a position that is eg contrary to most experts on a topic would be a much greater warning sign.
I feel like there’s just a crazy number of minority views (in the limit a bunch of psychoses held by just one individual), most of which must be wrong. We’re more likely to hear about minority views which later turn out to be correct, but it seems very implausible that the base rate of correctness is higher for minority views than majority views.
On the other hand I think there’s some distinction to be drawn between “minority view disagrees with strongly held majority view” and “minority view concerns something that majority mostly ignores / doesn’t have a view on”.
that is a fair point. departures from global majority opinion still seems like a pretty weak ‘fire alarm’ for being wrong. Taking a position that is eg contrary to most experts on a topic would be a much greater warning sign.