Basically, there’s a big difference between “OP made a mistake because they over/underrated X” and “OP made a mistake because they were politically or PR motivated and intentionally made sub-optimal grants.”
The synthesis position might be something like “some subset of OP made a mistake because they were subconsciously politically or PR motivated and unintentionally made sub-optimal grants.”
I think this is a reasonable candidate hypothesis, and should not be that much of a surprise, all things considered. We’re all human.
FWIW I would be surprised to see you, Linch, make a suboptimal grant out of PR motivation. I think Open Phil is capable of being in a place where it can avoid making noticeably-suboptimal grants due to bad subconscious motivations.
The synthesis position might be something like “some subset of OP made a mistake because they were subconsciously politically or PR motivated and unintentionally made sub-optimal grants.”
I think this is a reasonable candidate hypothesis, and should not be that much of a surprise, all things considered. We’re all human.
FWIW I would be surprised to see you, Linch, make a suboptimal grant out of PR motivation. I think Open Phil is capable of being in a place where it can avoid making noticeably-suboptimal grants due to bad subconscious motivations.