Conversely, if sentences are reduced more than in the margin, common sense suggests that crime will increase, as observed in, for instance, San Francisco.
A bit of a nit since this is in your appendix, but there are serious issues with this reasoning and the linked evidence. Basically, this requires the claims that: 1. San Francisco reduced sentences 2. There was subsequently more crime
1. Shellenberger at the WSJ writes:
the charging rate for theft by Mr. Boudin’s office declined from 62% in 2019 to 46% in 2021; for petty theft it fell from 58% to 35%.
He doesn’t provide a citation, but I’m fairly confident he’s pulling these numbers from this SF Chronicle writeup, which is actually citing a change from 2018-2019 to 2020-2021. So right off the bat Shellenberger is fudging the data.
Second, the aggregated data is misleading because there were specific pandemic-effects in 2020 unrelated to Boudin’s policies. If you look at the DA office’s disaggregated data, there is a drop in filing rate in 2020, but it picks up dramatically in 2021. In fact, the 2021 rate is higher than the 2019 rate both for crime overall, and for the larceny/theft category. So not only is Shellenberger’s claim misleading, it’s entirely incorrect.
You can be skeptical of the DA office’s data, but note that this is the same source used by the SF Chronicle, and thus by Shellenberger as well.
2. Despite popular anecdotes, there’s really no evidence that crime was actually up in San Francisco, or that it occurred as a result of Boudin’s policies. - Actual reported shoplifting was down from 2019-2020 - Reported shoplifting in adjacent countries was down less than in California as a whole, indicating a lack of “substitution effects” where criminals go where sentences are lighter - The store closures cited by Shellenberger can’t be pinned on increased crime under Boudin because: A) Walgreens had already announced a plan to close 200 stores back in 2019 B) Of the 8 stores that closed in 2019 and 2020, at least half closed in 2019, making the 2020 closures unexceptional C) The 2021 store closure rate for Walgreens is actually much lower than comparable metrics, like the closures of sister company Duane Reader in NYC over the same year, or the dramatic drop in Walgreens stock price. It is also not much higher than the historical average of 3.7 store closures per year in SF.
Finally, the problem with the “common sense” reasoning is that it goes both ways. Yes, it seems reasonable to think that less punishment would result in more crime, but we can similarly intuit that spending time in prison and losing access to legal opportunities would result in more crime. Or that having your household’s primary provider incarcerated would lead to more crime. Etc etc. Yes, we are lacking in high quality evidence, but that doesn’t mean we can just pick which priors to put faith in.
He doesn’t provide a citation, but I’m fairly confident he’s pulling these numbers from this SF Chronicle writeup, which is actually citing a change from 2018-2019 to 2020-2021. So right off the bat Shellenberger is fudging the data.
Oh wow, I wasn’t expecting the guy to just lie about this.
Much of this lawlessness can be linked to Proposition 47, a California ballot initiative passed in 2014, under which theft of less than $950 in goods is treated as a nonviolent misdemeanor and rarely prosecuted.
Which is just not true at all. Every state has some threshold, and California’s is actually on the “tough on crime” side of the spectrum.
Shellenberger himself is an interesting guy, though not necessarily in a good way.
A bit of a nit since this is in your appendix, but there are serious issues with this reasoning and the linked evidence. Basically, this requires the claims that:
1. San Francisco reduced sentences
2. There was subsequently more crime
1. Shellenberger at the WSJ writes:
He doesn’t provide a citation, but I’m fairly confident he’s pulling these numbers from this SF Chronicle writeup, which is actually citing a change from 2018-2019 to 2020-2021. So right off the bat Shellenberger is fudging the data.
Second, the aggregated data is misleading because there were specific pandemic-effects in 2020 unrelated to Boudin’s policies. If you look at the DA office’s disaggregated data, there is a drop in filing rate in 2020, but it picks up dramatically in 2021. In fact, the 2021 rate is higher than the 2019 rate both for crime overall, and for the larceny/theft category. So not only is Shellenberger’s claim misleading, it’s entirely incorrect.
You can be skeptical of the DA office’s data, but note that this is the same source used by the SF Chronicle, and thus by Shellenberger as well.
2. Despite popular anecdotes, there’s really no evidence that crime was actually up in San Francisco, or that it occurred as a result of Boudin’s policies.
- Actual reported shoplifting was down from 2019-2020
- Reported shoplifting in adjacent countries was down less than in California as a whole, indicating a lack of “substitution effects” where criminals go where sentences are lighter
- The store closures cited by Shellenberger can’t be pinned on increased crime under Boudin because:
A) Walgreens had already announced a plan to close 200 stores back in 2019
B) Of the 8 stores that closed in 2019 and 2020, at least half closed in 2019, making the 2020 closures unexceptional
C) The 2021 store closure rate for Walgreens is actually much lower than comparable metrics, like the closures of sister company Duane Reader in NYC over the same year, or the dramatic drop in Walgreens stock price. It is also not much higher than the historical average of 3.7 store closures per year in SF.
I have a much more extensive writeup on all of this here:
https://applieddivinitystudies.com/sf-crime-2/
Finally, the problem with the “common sense” reasoning is that it goes both ways. Yes, it seems reasonable to think that less punishment would result in more crime, but we can similarly intuit that spending time in prison and losing access to legal opportunities would result in more crime. Or that having your household’s primary provider incarcerated would lead to more crime. Etc etc. Yes, we are lacking in high quality evidence, but that doesn’t mean we can just pick which priors to put faith in.
Added a note in that sentence of the appendix to point to this comment pending further investigation (which, realistically, I’m not going to do).
Thanks!
Oh wow, I wasn’t expecting the guy to just lie about this.
In general, WSJ reporting on SF crime has been quite bad. In another article they write
Which is just not true at all. Every state has some threshold, and California’s is actually on the “tough on crime” side of the spectrum.
Shellenberger himself is an interesting guy, though not necessarily in a good way.