In our new report, The Elephant in the Bednet, we show that the relative value of life-extending and life-improving interventions depends very heavily on the philosophical assumptions you make. This issue is usually glossed over and there is no simple answer.
We conclude that the Against Malaria Foundation is less cost-effective than StrongMinds under almost all assumptions. We expect this conclusion will similarly apply to the other life-extending charities recommended by GiveWell.
In suggesting James quote these together, it sounds like you’re saying something like “this is a clear caveat to the strength of recommendation behind StrongMinds, HLI doesn’t recommend StrongMinds as strongly as the individual bullet implies, it’s misleading for you to not include this”.
As a result of this framing, despite the caveat that HLI “[does] not advocate for any particular view”, I think it’s reasonable to interpret this as being strongly supportive of StrongMinds, which can be true even if HLI does not have a formed view on the exact philosophical view to take.[2]
If you did mean the former (that the bullet about philosophical assumptions is primarily included as a caveat to the strength of recommendation behind StrongMinds), then there is probably some tension here between (emphasis added):
-”the relative value of life-extending and life-improving interventions depends very heavily on the philosophical assumptions you make...there is no simple answer”, and
-”We conclude StrongMinds > AMF under almost all assumptions”
Additionally I think some weak evidence to suggest that HLI is not as well-caveated as it could be is that many people (mistakenly) viewed HLI as an advocacy organisation for mental health interventions. I do think this is a reasonable outside interpretation based on HLI’s communications, even though this is not HLI’s stated intent. For example, I don’t think it would be unreasonable for an outsider to read your current pinned thread and come away with conclusions like:
“StrongMinds is the best place to donate”,
“StrongMinds is better than AMF”,
“Mental health is a very good place to donate if you want to do the most good”,
“Happiness is what ultimately matters for wellbeing and what should be measured”.
If these are not what you want people to take away, then I think pointing to this bullet point caveat doesn’t really meaningfully address this concern—the response kind of feels something like “you should have read the fine print”. While I don’t think it’s not necessary for HLI to take a stance on specific philosophical views, I do think it becomes an issue if people are (mis)interpreting HLI’s stance based on its published statements.
-We show how much cost-effectiveness changes by shifting from one extreme of (reasonable) opinion to the other. At one end, AMF is 1.3x better than StrongMinds. At the other, StrongMinds is 12x better than AMF.
-StrongMinds and GiveDirectly are represented with flat, dashed lines because their cost-effectiveness does not change under the different assumptions.
-As you can see, AMF’s cost-effectiveness changes a lot. It is only more cost-effective than StrongMinds if you adopt deprivationism and place the neutral point below 1.
As you’ve acknowledged, comments like “We’re now in a position to confidently recommend StrongMinds as the most effective way we know of to help other people with your money.” perhaps add to the confusion.
In suggesting James quote these together, it sounds like you’re saying something like “this is a clear caveat to the strength of recommendation behind StrongMinds, HLI doesn’t recommend StrongMinds as strongly as the individual bullet implies, it’s misleading for you to not include this”.
But in other places HLI’s communication around this takes on a framing of something closer to “The cost effectiveness of AMF, (but not StrongMinds) varies greatly under these assumptions. But the vast majority of this large range falls below the cost effectiveness of StrongMinds”. (extracted quotes in footnote)[1]
As a result of this framing, despite the caveat that HLI “[does] not advocate for any particular view”, I think it’s reasonable to interpret this as being strongly supportive of StrongMinds, which can be true even if HLI does not have a formed view on the exact philosophical view to take.[2]
If you did mean the former (that the bullet about philosophical assumptions is primarily included as a caveat to the strength of recommendation behind StrongMinds), then there is probably some tension here between (emphasis added):
-”the relative value of life-extending and life-improving interventions depends very heavily on the philosophical assumptions you make...there is no simple answer”, and
-”We conclude StrongMinds > AMF under almost all assumptions”
Additionally I think some weak evidence to suggest that HLI is not as well-caveated as it could be is that many people (mistakenly) viewed HLI as an advocacy organisation for mental health interventions. I do think this is a reasonable outside interpretation based on HLI’s communications, even though this is not HLI’s stated intent. For example, I don’t think it would be unreasonable for an outsider to read your current pinned thread and come away with conclusions like:
“StrongMinds is the best place to donate”,
“StrongMinds is better than AMF”,
“Mental health is a very good place to donate if you want to do the most good”,
“Happiness is what ultimately matters for wellbeing and what should be measured”.
If these are not what you want people to take away, then I think pointing to this bullet point caveat doesn’t really meaningfully address this concern—the response kind of feels something like “you should have read the fine print”. While I don’t think it’s not necessary for HLI to take a stance on specific philosophical views, I do think it becomes an issue if people are (mis)interpreting HLI’s stance based on its published statements.
(commenting in personal capacity etc)
As you’ve acknowledged, comments like “We’re now in a position to confidently recommend StrongMinds as the most effective way we know of to help other people with your money.” perhaps add to the confusion.