Agree re: context behind numbers. Great idea on hiring forecasters for rationale reports—I would love to see what base rates a top forecaster used to arrive a prediction, for example.
Generally, I think there needs to be more forecasting content, and not just in text format.
(Also I’m highlighting when a news story precedes a change in the numbers, e.g. “🚨 odds of Chinese involvement 2x after position paper!”)
Good ideas re sponsorship with eg quants, or partnership with prediction markets. I think a few months of good traffic will unlock opportunities
I will launch a Patreon along with the AI dashboard later this month
Thank you!
Agree re: context behind numbers. Great idea on hiring forecasters for rationale reports—I would love to see what base rates a top forecaster used to arrive a prediction, for example.
Generally, I think there needs to be more forecasting content, and not just in text format.
(Also I’m highlighting when a news story precedes a change in the numbers, e.g. “🚨 odds of Chinese involvement 2x after position paper!”)
Good ideas re sponsorship with eg quants, or partnership with prediction markets. I think a few months of good traffic will unlock opportunities
I will launch a Patreon along with the AI dashboard later this month
Appreciate your support~