(written on my phone, apologies for the poor formatting and lack of hyperlinks!)
this is AWESOME! so glad i’m seeing this become a reality :D
i think one of the central things you might work on is developing out rationales. a number only gets ppl so far — understanding WHY the market is at a certain percentage is also super helpful. this seems like one of the central aspects of what makes forecasting useful. it also seems like a great way to monetize forecasting as a skill, which you mentioned is one of your goals.
[edit: to clarify, i’m proposing that you could hire forecasters to write reports/rationales on specific topics. forecasters get paid for their skills, you get longer-form content, consumers get actionable, context-laden info > a single number. in terms of figuring out where the money’s coming from…]
some ideas for funding:
seems like you’re giving the prediction market companies free advertising??? maybe ask them to pay or smth…
LTFF
ads (i don’t recommend)
paid subscription option, maybe/especially to get the rationales or something
sponsorships — might function similar to ads, except partnering with specific companies who’re interested in capturing the attention of ppl who read BRT. for example, quant finance. dm me if you want more help/info on this one.
ask for donations from readers
uhh idk i ran out of ideas ngl
again, i think this is really really cool and i’m in full support! :)
Agree re: context behind numbers. Great idea on hiring forecasters for rationale reports—I would love to see what base rates a top forecaster used to arrive a prediction, for example.
Generally, I think there needs to be more forecasting content, and not just in text format.
(Also I’m highlighting when a news story precedes a change in the numbers, e.g. “🚨 odds of Chinese involvement 2x after position paper!”)
Good ideas re sponsorship with eg quants, or partnership with prediction markets. I think a few months of good traffic will unlock opportunities
I will launch a Patreon along with the AI dashboard later this month
(written on my phone, apologies for the poor formatting and lack of hyperlinks!)
this is AWESOME! so glad i’m seeing this become a reality :D
i think one of the central things you might work on is developing out rationales. a number only gets ppl so far — understanding WHY the market is at a certain percentage is also super helpful. this seems like one of the central aspects of what makes forecasting useful. it also seems like a great way to monetize forecasting as a skill, which you mentioned is one of your goals.
[edit: to clarify, i’m proposing that you could hire forecasters to write reports/rationales on specific topics. forecasters get paid for their skills, you get longer-form content, consumers get actionable, context-laden info > a single number. in terms of figuring out where the money’s coming from…]
some ideas for funding:
seems like you’re giving the prediction market companies free advertising??? maybe ask them to pay or smth…
LTFF
ads (i don’t recommend)
paid subscription option, maybe/especially to get the rationales or something
sponsorships — might function similar to ads, except partnering with specific companies who’re interested in capturing the attention of ppl who read BRT. for example, quant finance. dm me if you want more help/info on this one.
ask for donations from readers
uhh idk i ran out of ideas ngl
again, i think this is really really cool and i’m in full support! :)
Thank you!
Agree re: context behind numbers. Great idea on hiring forecasters for rationale reports—I would love to see what base rates a top forecaster used to arrive a prediction, for example.
Generally, I think there needs to be more forecasting content, and not just in text format.
(Also I’m highlighting when a news story precedes a change in the numbers, e.g. “🚨 odds of Chinese involvement 2x after position paper!”)
Good ideas re sponsorship with eg quants, or partnership with prediction markets. I think a few months of good traffic will unlock opportunities
I will launch a Patreon along with the AI dashboard later this month
Appreciate your support~