Likelihood of nuclear winterTwo recent 80k podcasts [1, 2] deal with nuclear winter (EA wiki link). One episode discusses bias in nuclear winter research (link to section in transcript). The modern case for nuclear winter is based on modelling by Robock, Toon, et al. (e.g. see them being acknowledged here). Some researchers have criticized them, suggesting the nuclear winter hypothesis is implausible and that the research is biased and has been instrumentalized for political reasons (e.g. paper, paper, citation trail of recent modelling work out of Los Alamos National Labs, which couldn’t replicate the nuclear winter effect). One recent paper summarizes the disagreements between the different modelling camps. Another paper suggests that nuclear war might also damage the ozone layer.
Related: New audible of ‘Hacking the Bomb’ on cyber nuclear security.
Likelihood of nuclear winter
Two recent 80k podcasts [1, 2] deal with nuclear winter (EA wiki link). One episode discusses bias in nuclear winter research (link to section in transcript). The modern case for nuclear winter is based on modelling by Robock, Toon, et al. (e.g. see them being acknowledged here). Some researchers have criticized them, suggesting the nuclear winter hypothesis is implausible and that the research is biased and has been instrumentalized for political reasons (e.g. paper, paper, citation trail of recent modelling work out of Los Alamos National Labs, which couldn’t replicate the nuclear winter effect). One recent paper summarizes the disagreements between the different modelling camps. Another paper suggests that nuclear war might also damage the ozone layer.
Related: New audible of ‘Hacking the Bomb’ on cyber nuclear security.