Vasco Grilo🔸 comments on Winners of the Squiggle Experimentation and 80,000 Hours Quantification Challenges

[Vasco Grilo🔸]

Hi Nuño,

Thanks for sharing, and organising the challenges!

Vasco Grillo looks at the cost-effectiveness of operations

Nitpick, it is “Grilo”, not “Grillo”, but I like the Spanish version too!

With most of these posts, we appreciated the estimation strategies, as well as the initial estimation attempts. But we generally thought that the posts were far from complete estimates, and there is still much work between now and estimating the relative or absolute values of 80,000 hours’ top career paths in a way which would be decision-relevant.

I tend to agree. I also wonder which strategy does 80,000 Hours uses to come up with their list of top-recommended career paths. I understand factors like importance, tractability and neglectedness are part of it, but I wonder what is the specific procedure to come up with the rankings (e.g. maybe a weighted factor model).

From the entries to the 80,000 hours estimation challenge, we probably overestimated the difficulty of producing comprehensive estimates for 80,000 hours’ top career paths.

Did you mean “underestimated” (instead of “overestimated”)?

[NunoSempere]

Nitpick, it is “Grilo”, not “Grillo”, but I like the Spanish version too!

Terribly sorry, fixed now.

I tend to agree. I also wonder which strategy does 80,000 Hours uses to come up with their list of top-recommended career paths. I understand factors like importance, tractability and neglectedness are part of it, but I wonder what is the specific procedure to come up with the rankings (e.g. maybe a weighted factor model).

I am not really sure!

Did you mean “underestimated” (instead of “overestimated”)?

Yep, thanks, fixed.