I disagree because I think error bounds over probabilities are less principled than a lot of people assume, and they can add a bunch of false confidence.
Yes. Quantitive expressions of credal resilience is complicated, there isn’t a widely-shared-upon formulation, and a lot of people falsely assume that error bounds on made-up probabilities are more “rigorous” or “objective” than the probabilities themselves.
Re 2 the right way to compare high and low confidence numbers is to add error bounds. This chart does not do that.
I disagree because I think error bounds over probabilities are less principled than a lot of people assume, and they can add a bunch of false confidence.
More false confidence than not mentioning error ranges at all?
Yes. Quantitive expressions of credal resilience is complicated, there isn’t a widely-shared-upon formulation, and a lot of people falsely assume that error bounds on made-up probabilities are more “rigorous” or “objective” than the probabilities themselves.