(edited to add: as you might guess from my previous post, I think some level of AI skepticism is healthy and I appreciate you sharing your thoughts. I’ve become more convinced of the seriousness of AI x-risk over time, feel free to DM me if you’re interested in chatting sometime)
IMO by far the most through estimation of AI x-risk thus far is Carlsmith’s Is Power-Seeking an Existential Risk? (see also summary presentation, reviews).
(edited to add: as you might guess from my previous post, I think some level of AI skepticism is healthy and I appreciate you sharing your thoughts. I’ve become more convinced of the seriousness of AI x-risk over time, feel free to DM me if you’re interested in chatting sometime)