Thank you for these references, I’ll take a close look on them. I’ll write a new comment if I have any thoughts after going through them.
Before having read them, I want to say that I’m interested in research about risk estimation and AI progress forecasting. General research about possible AI risks without assigning them any probabilities is not very useful in determining if a threat is relevant. If anyone has papers specifically on that topic, I’m very interested in reading them too.
(edited to add: as you might guess from my previous post, I think some level of AI skepticism is healthy and I appreciate you sharing your thoughts. I’ve become more convinced of the seriousness of AI x-risk over time, feel free to DM me if you’re interested in chatting sometime)
Thank you for these references, I’ll take a close look on them. I’ll write a new comment if I have any thoughts after going through them.
Before having read them, I want to say that I’m interested in research about risk estimation and AI progress forecasting. General research about possible AI risks without assigning them any probabilities is not very useful in determining if a threat is relevant. If anyone has papers specifically on that topic, I’m very interested in reading them too.
IMO by far the most through estimation of AI x-risk thus far is Carlsmith’s Is Power-Seeking an Existential Risk? (see also summary presentation, reviews).
(edited to add: as you might guess from my previous post, I think some level of AI skepticism is healthy and I appreciate you sharing your thoughts. I’ve become more convinced of the seriousness of AI x-risk over time, feel free to DM me if you’re interested in chatting sometime)