There are some reasons to think scandals will be as or more consequential in 2020 as they were in 2016: The executive branch under Trump could seize upon them to manipulate the election, and the mainstream media doesn’t seem to recognize that they had central role in damaging Hillary. OTOH, most American elections in history have not been decided by scandals. The Comey letter that probably cost Hillary the election made for a somewhat unusual perfect storm. Swing voters will probably go into this knowing that Trump is more corrupt/scandalous—it’s not like 2016 when Trump was a kind of unknown alternative. And the mainstream media might behave better this time, despite not publicly blaming themselves for 2016. For one thing, they won’t assume that Trump will lose, which is likely what motivated the disproportionate coverage of the email scandal.
Anyway, scandals can happen to anyone and it’s hard to differentiate stronger/weaker candidates without descending into tea-leaves divination.
I was previously worried about Biden-Ukraine, but as Vox pointed out, the coverage surrounding the Trump-Ukraine scandal doesn’t seem to have hurt Biden either in the Dem primaries or in head-to-head polling against Trump.
There is Warren’s deception about her ancestry. But that is kind of well known and internalized by now.
There have been other controversies turning up in the Dem primaries, most notably against Pete, and then we have the story that Bernie is a millionaire, but these are mostly things that bother highly politically engaged left wing voters, who are unrepresentative and likely to turn out for the Dems anyway.
I actually had in mind accusations of sexism against Bloomberg. I think this is an issue that not just progressives care about.
Of course, assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, any Democrat will look better on the issue of sexism. Would many people be more likely to vote 3rd party or stay home just because they think Bloomberg is sexist? It doesn’t seem entirely implausible.
Would people vote for Trump because they think Bloomberg is sexist? I don’t think many would.
Hard to say but I think at this point we have to take note of why Clinton and her emails were perceived so badly. The idea was that there was real corruption in the government. Sexist remarks in the workplace are a known quantity, whereas a private unsecured email server is a kind of rabbit hole.
I definitely don’t deny that it could hurt him, my view is just that trying to aggregate and compare these concerns across all the candidates with their respective foibles doesn’t lead one to any substantive conclusions.
But now you are making me worry more that perhaps a woman will accuse him of sexual assault. With Mike’s locker room talk, and him being an old oligarch, there is cause for worry about him in particular. These accusations often follow people who are rising in the public conscience. Bloomberg was already famous before now and subject to sexism controversy, but not as much as he will be if he gets nominated, and his political career had apparently stopped by the time the #MeToo campaign started. You would expect a victim to come forward earlier while he was initially rising in the primary polls, but since he’s a late entrant who has been absent from debates, I wouldn’t be too confident about that. Bernie and Biden have been top political figures for a long time, so there is no appreciable risk with them. Pete’s gay and young. Warren’s a woman.
Adding a 1% probability of sexual assault accusations after the nomination causing Mike to lose against Trump, his campaign score drops from 8 to 6, putting him close to Pete. So I’m less enthusiastic about him now, but I don’t think this is yet enough to change the recommendations. (I will think more about it though.)
I generally don’t.
There are some reasons to think scandals will be as or more consequential in 2020 as they were in 2016: The executive branch under Trump could seize upon them to manipulate the election, and the mainstream media doesn’t seem to recognize that they had central role in damaging Hillary. OTOH, most American elections in history have not been decided by scandals. The Comey letter that probably cost Hillary the election made for a somewhat unusual perfect storm. Swing voters will probably go into this knowing that Trump is more corrupt/scandalous—it’s not like 2016 when Trump was a kind of unknown alternative. And the mainstream media might behave better this time, despite not publicly blaming themselves for 2016. For one thing, they won’t assume that Trump will lose, which is likely what motivated the disproportionate coverage of the email scandal.
Anyway, scandals can happen to anyone and it’s hard to differentiate stronger/weaker candidates without descending into tea-leaves divination.
I was previously worried about Biden-Ukraine, but as Vox pointed out, the coverage surrounding the Trump-Ukraine scandal doesn’t seem to have hurt Biden either in the Dem primaries or in head-to-head polling against Trump.
There is Warren’s deception about her ancestry. But that is kind of well known and internalized by now.
There have been other controversies turning up in the Dem primaries, most notably against Pete, and then we have the story that Bernie is a millionaire, but these are mostly things that bother highly politically engaged left wing voters, who are unrepresentative and likely to turn out for the Dems anyway.
Good points.
I actually had in mind accusations of sexism against Bloomberg. I think this is an issue that not just progressives care about.
Of course, assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, any Democrat will look better on the issue of sexism. Would many people be more likely to vote 3rd party or stay home just because they think Bloomberg is sexist? It doesn’t seem entirely implausible.
Would people vote for Trump because they think Bloomberg is sexist? I don’t think many would.
Hard to say but I think at this point we have to take note of why Clinton and her emails were perceived so badly. The idea was that there was real corruption in the government. Sexist remarks in the workplace are a known quantity, whereas a private unsecured email server is a kind of rabbit hole.
I definitely don’t deny that it could hurt him, my view is just that trying to aggregate and compare these concerns across all the candidates with their respective foibles doesn’t lead one to any substantive conclusions.
But now you are making me worry more that perhaps a woman will accuse him of sexual assault. With Mike’s locker room talk, and him being an old oligarch, there is cause for worry about him in particular. These accusations often follow people who are rising in the public conscience. Bloomberg was already famous before now and subject to sexism controversy, but not as much as he will be if he gets nominated, and his political career had apparently stopped by the time the #MeToo campaign started. You would expect a victim to come forward earlier while he was initially rising in the primary polls, but since he’s a late entrant who has been absent from debates, I wouldn’t be too confident about that. Bernie and Biden have been top political figures for a long time, so there is no appreciable risk with them. Pete’s gay and young. Warren’s a woman.
Adding a 1% probability of sexual assault accusations after the nomination causing Mike to lose against Trump, his campaign score drops from 8 to 6, putting him close to Pete. So I’m less enthusiastic about him now, but I don’t think this is yet enough to change the recommendations. (I will think more about it though.)